Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x385b09e15625f96b327f4192a5b624bbd35f18281c1c09a0ee0a97eb138f364f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,701
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,366
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,701 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 68c | 337.17$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.95 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 43c | 237.4$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.67 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 12c | 223.04$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.06 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 63c | 211.06$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.29 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 55c | 206.96$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.86 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 40c | 169.05$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.43 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 32c | 159.81$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.19 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 15c | 149.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 50c | 136.18$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.69 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 31c | 135.83$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.64 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 41c | 123.74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.29 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 38c | 121.95$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.79 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 49c | 117.59$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.11 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 53c | 98.08$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.27 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 40c | 96.46$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.69 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x515c…7587backed No | 42c | 86.72$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.63 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 69c | 80$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 73c | 77.52$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.27 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 41c | 76.9$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.53 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 59c | 74.37$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.49 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 60c | 67.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.18 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 41c | 62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 43c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No | 54c | 57.55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.3 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0528…99dabacked No | 59c | 55.72$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.87 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 63cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…74f9backed No | 46c | 53.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.73 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 57c | 53.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 44c | 50.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa66…1c5bbacked No | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e0…6392backed Yes | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 51c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 32c | 38.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1613…6bb0backed Yes | 57c | 38.25$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 75c | 37.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 35c | 36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15e1…1b3dbacked No | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70d2…2861backed Yes | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aaa…d0e0backed No | 43c | 25.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x48b5…3300backed Yes | 56c | 25.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 70c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 58c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 68c | 24.78$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 70c | 20.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18dc…5e90backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37df…f8b9backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 119 | 58.8%70 W · 49 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.