Premier League · resolved market
Will Southampton vs. Leicester end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x386bbdeacc2693a64677420c9e9df869ae516deba9605d0848a7f44e2ab69ebc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,666
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,951
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,666 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Yes | 48c | 4,480$2,154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,154.25 | 378 | 41.8%158 W · 220 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed No | 57c | 3,947$2,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,697.11 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | +7.7wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b51…e165backed No | 74c | 1,500$1,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.46 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32b2…841cbacked No | 15c | 1,394$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,185 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Yes | 70c | 994.77$695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$694.65 | 402 | 54.7%220 W · 182 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e0…024ebacked No | 72c | 907.07$653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.98 | 189 | 50.3%95 W · 94 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Yes | 26c | 843.16$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.22 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd244…f24cbacked Yes | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31e0…0bc0backed Yes | 29c | 346$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.34 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9055…756abacked No | 17c | 308.97$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.18 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +6.0wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +97.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed Yes | 30c | 303.9$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.17 | 319 | 44.5%142 W · 177 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 225.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 660 | 31.2%206 W · 454 L | -13.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 70c | 222$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.6 | 168 | 48.8%82 W · 86 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x509f…8fb7backed Yes | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…5adfbacked Yes | 28c | 105.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 291 | 46%134 W · 157 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08bc…2bd6backed Yes | 28c | 102$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…d68fbacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x829d…c8e5backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 200 | 40.5%81 W · 119 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c7…053ebacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e38…879bbacked Yes | 29c | 72.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87c4…490ebacked No | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 68cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 28c | 65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 208 | 19.2%40 W · 168 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…c5fdbacked No | 73c | 59.45$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc275…c291backed Yes | 29c | 55.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67fe…ca57backed Yes | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…f6a6backed Yes | 29c | 52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f0…cac7backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f1…3370backed No | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaec…8e1abacked Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Southampton vs. Leicester end in a draw?this page
- Will Leicester win on 2024-10-19?Yes won
- Will Southampton win on 2024-10-19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.