Weather · resolved market
2024 December hottest on record?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x386cf9745ac46d25fdbc88fe0110648a0487879b5c199969e0fe6826eca76c99
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $326,924
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $336,230
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $326,924 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9500…083cbacked Yes | 1c | 40,708$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x595a…ad9fbacked Yes | 1c | 15,772$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.63 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91b0…f0b6backed Yes | 5c | 10,630$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.91 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x477a…2d8ebacked Yes | 1c | 10,300$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.7 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf17c…366fbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x427c…fa38backed Yes | 8c | 9,562$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$765.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13ac…2a8abacked Yes | 1c | 6,667$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b4…7d8fbacked Yes | 1c | 5,377$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 2c | 4,861$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.34 | 99 | 13.1%13 W · 86 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa54…f2aabacked Yes | 2c | 4,338$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.91 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d7…82b3backed Yes | 7c | 4,142$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.03 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…33a1backed Yes | 8c | 4,036$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf233…f5d6backed Yes | 1c | 3,815$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.1 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1685…2125backed Yes | 0c | 3,750$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf241…a9a8backed Yes | 20c | 3,691$745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$745 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44f7…266fbacked Yes | 0c | 3,650$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf311…fe1bbacked Yes | 7c | 2,890$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 9c | 2,692$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.32 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x168c…71f6backed Yes | 1c | 2,634$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6064…1af8backed Yes | 13c | 2,213$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.3 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4b…559cbacked Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -71%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1422…438bbacked Yes | 7c | 1,872$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 3c | 1,858$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.87 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc912…e7ffbacked Yes | 2c | 1,701$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x958f…c73dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,466$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b64…825ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,361$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d2…435abacked Yes | 6c | 1,300$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cf…9fc6backed Yes | 11c | 1,090$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b9…0d20backed Yes | 1c | 1,001$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…3b8bbacked Yes | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd347…5205backed Yes | 6c | 955$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0809…0d9dbacked Yes | 4c | 810.46$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe893…f215backed Yes | 9c | 711$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.35 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36cb…810abacked Yes | 7c | 700$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bdd…31acbacked Yes | 7c | 533.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8f…f9e9backed Yes | 3c | 510.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffd…c854backed Yes | 3c | 499.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f24…f47bbacked Yes | 19c | 469.78$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5446…18f6backed Yes | 15c | 437$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…660bbacked Yes | 20c | 368.62$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9af…7ab3backed Yes | 15c | 352.73$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 15c | 325.49$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.82 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…cf42backed Yes | 7c | 283.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ce…e4dabacked Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…b54bbacked Yes | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfefc…1ea4backed Yes | 9c | 219.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb4…bbcbbacked Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48e5…a482backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8485…3439backed Yes | 8c | 197$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50ff…9da1backed Yes | 8c | 187.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes | 17c | 176.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe10b…5fe3backed Yes | 20c | 170$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Yes | 20c | 166.65$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.7 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -56%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 9c | 150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f74…8edbbacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58d2…7b07backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a46…bbfbbacked Yes | 12c | 100.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2977…fbbcbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d1d…58d8backed Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 80c | 49.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…a960backed No | 80c | 23.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.