Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 51-52°F on February 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x38bda5a10263fd30516ea3f6a14263c38e2fd7d7fab2301c22b3e5406644a12b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,200
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,552
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,200 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3df4…57dfbacked No | 7c | 1,750$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.5 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +20.1wins | +0.18per pick | 37cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7343…59b6backed No | 6c | 521.55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9241…f41cbacked Yes | 71c | 209.93$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.93 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | -14.8wins | -0.15per pick | 63cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 39c | 200$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.67 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1734…ddd4backed Yes | 59c | 172$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.52 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.26per pick | 62cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 58c | 157.55$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.7 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…d918backed No | 34c | 150$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.54 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe92b…fa4dbacked Yes | 57c | 139.17$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.17 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0054…7f85backed No | 43c | 129$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.41 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 46c | 127.04$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.85 | 213 | 50.2%107 W · 106 L | +19.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa291…d88dbacked Yes | 67c | 115$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 191 | 26.2%50 W · 141 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14d2…bbccbacked No | 51c | 105$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2426…9a9cbacked Yes | 49c | 105$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7680…e64dbacked No | 54c | 102$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aea…abf1backed Yes | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c97…362cbacked No | 31c | 92$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad4…dc12backed Yes | 55c | 90.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e69…a06cbacked Yes | 39c | 86.62$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.84 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde26…0972backed Yes | 74c | 86.54$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.86 | 39 | 71.8%28 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x465a…1853backed Yes | 71c | 84.39$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a74…413ebacked Yes | 49c | 81.17$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.17 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +80.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 45c | 78.05$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.07 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e1…3bc9backed No | 62c | 77$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed No | 61c | 70.13$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.98 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -7.3wins | -0.16per pick | 61cpaid | -36%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe1…0bfdbacked No | 30c | 69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x444d…1bbabacked No | 32c | 69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc189…fcd4backed Yes | 46c | 67$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c5…227dbacked Yes | 56c | 65$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc809…5f45backed Yes | 38c | 64$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…f8a2backed No | 42c | 62$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b9…801fbacked Yes | 58c | 61$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.62 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.8 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cf…1f03backed Yes | 20c | 58.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.69 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe13c…0f07backed No | 27c | 58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x883a…8234backed Yes | 73c | 58$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d46…bb70backed Yes | 70c | 52$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +113%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b34…7eb8backed Yes | 35c | 51.4$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.52 | 123 | 45.5%56 W · 67 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 55c | 50.62$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.68 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e6…2cc5backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 205 | 56.1%115 W · 90 L | +25.5wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x13b5…c65ebacked No | 29c | 46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e3…0966backed Yes | 71c | 44$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 60cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb8…7ec7backed No | 30c | 43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba7…9b4dbacked Yes | 28c | 42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.24 | 64 | 35.9%23 W · 41 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c15…a0c8backed No | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc1…ba14backed Yes | 45c | 38.52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b61…5bd2backed Yes | 69c | 38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef1d…4a0abacked No | 29c | 37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d8…5655backed No | 29c | 37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc341…063dbacked Yes | 70c | 31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 65c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 54c | 29.43$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45c6…b313backed Yes | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77e8…1f5abacked Yes | 68c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf07…65efbacked Yes | 46c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87e9…8f1dbacked Yes | 70c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44b2…9bcdbacked Yes | 69c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea2c…f327backed Yes | 58c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7b…70bdbacked Yes | 71c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745d…5965backed Yes | 69c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cb…4242backed Yes | 70c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6188…802bbacked Yes | 71c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee4f…6b49backed No | 70c | 16.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9118…e9dabacked No | 70c | 16.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x176d…e386backed Yes | 71c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe464…02fcbacked Yes | 72c | 15.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 51-52°F on February 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 55°F or higher on February 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 45-46°F on February 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 47-48°F on February 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 49-50°F on February 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 53-54°F on February 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.