Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 49-50°F on February 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x54d14de2e55e662b42a906ee0bd8490acc74b4559e924c69139bb54398156614
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,075
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,557
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,075 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf294…5df6backed Yes | 36c | 1,070$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.2 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3660…8c06backed Yes | 2c | 1,046$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 3c | 1,029$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.37 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde32…700cbacked Yes | 26c | 848.38$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.8 | 129 | 50.4%65 W · 64 L | +13.1wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 2c | 742.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb901…3ff6backed No | 64c | 670$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.2 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…4635backed No | 64c | 400$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +3.6wins | +0.28per pick | 57cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 32c | 300$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f9…4b22backed Yes | 35c | 290$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.5 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1f…6500backed Yes | 21c | 211.71$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Yes | 27c | 199.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 259 | 47.5%123 W · 136 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99b4…aa0bbacked No | 65c | 190$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 58c | 189$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.85 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde26…0972backed No | 77c | 130.63$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.41 | 39 | 71.8%28 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0054…7f85backed No | 64c | 129$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.18 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 25c | 128.84$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.78 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 44c | 127.04$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.9 | 213 | 50.2%107 W · 106 L | +19.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x85e5…c0fbbacked Yes | 19c | 113$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa5…8d6dbacked No | 77c | 110$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e69…a06cbacked Yes | 43c | 106$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.58 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9241…f41cbacked Yes | 48c | 104.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | -14.8wins | -0.15per pick | 63cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 42c | 104$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.86 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc369…4e87backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 64 | 17.2%11 W · 53 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.57 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x663f…10afbacked No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe614…fab4backed Yes | 35c | 92$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a06…b81bbacked Yes | 17c | 86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd577…722bbacked Yes | 43c | 84$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2406…f7adbacked Yes | 35c | 83$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 59c | 80$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.13 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea2c…f327backed Yes | 17c | 77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a11…f8aebacked No | 57c | 72$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb16…4ab5backed No | 65c | 71$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7888…fab2backed No | 65c | 71$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94ee…3fbebacked Yes | 58c | 68.48$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb12a…8d19backed No | 69c | 67.91$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 41c | 65.06$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.74 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4fb…bbd0backed Yes | 35c | 64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c5…227dbacked Yes | 20c | 60.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…62b1backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e6…2cc5backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 205 | 56.1%115 W · 90 L | +25.5wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9b34…7eb8backed Yes | 47c | 49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 123 | 45.5%56 W · 67 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fae…ce9fbacked Yes | 36c | 47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +28%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a0d…4d64backed No | 65c | 42$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb194…1063backed Yes | 29c | 41.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe02…7710backed No | 65c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45c6…b313backed No | 65c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf97c…5cbabacked Yes | 45c | 22.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9118…e9dabacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3165…a565backed No | 65c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 49-50°F on February 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 55°F or higher on February 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 45-46°F on February 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 47-48°F on February 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 51-52°F on February 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 53-54°F on February 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.