Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on April 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x38d0b798a87887c128369fbea479277a91fffea6c6330a280a98aa4795f52fdf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,118
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,543
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,118 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ca1…17e5backed Yes | 16c | 999.97$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.99 | 153 | 28.1%43 W · 110 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 4c | 383.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 20c | 299.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 99 | 19.2%19 W · 80 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 29c | 170.17$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 40c | 142.09$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.38 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 15c | 139.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 76c | 138.87$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.84 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 18c | 120.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 25c | 99.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 69c | 99.92$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.42 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 34c | 87.21$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.35 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40e8…9a56backed Yes | 27c | 86.31$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.93 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 76.01$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.37 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked No | 72c | 71.91$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 30c | 71.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7747…7cf2backed No | 77c | 63.44$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…bf33backed No | 66c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 31c | 58.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…4e36backed No | 77c | 57.38$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 197 | 72.6%143 W · 54 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e9…0beabacked Yes | 30c | 51.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 20c | 51.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf0…9bf5backed Yes | 37c | 50.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 23c | 49.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47f7…0312backed No | 66c | 45.44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 146 | 63%92 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…c0dbbacked No | 69c | 44.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.71 | 191 | 60.7%116 W · 75 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 66c | 37.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 31c | 37.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4dc…338abacked No | 77c | 34.25$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb198…6291backed Yes | 34c | 30.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 133 | 40.6%54 W · 79 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f57…c3acbacked Yes | 36c | 28.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 70c | 28.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 70c | 26.95$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 64c | 26.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 67c | 25.78$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 68c | 25.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa2…15eabacked No | 67c | 21.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 75c | 19.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4671…b5eebacked No | 72c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…a2f8backed No | 67c | 15.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 118 | 72.9%86 W · 32 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x967e…2fb6backed No | 78c | 15.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.41 | 143 | 32.9%47 W · 96 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 65c | 15.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on April 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on April 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on April 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.