Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on April 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x71db31614358375ee55929fb86ad38f317938b2bf09361514ea9111105f7479d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,266
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,298
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,266 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 66c | 615.96$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.06 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 5c | 375$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 63c | 247.08$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.23 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3e…e0f1backed Yes | 21c | 234.77$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.18 | 80 | 13.8%11 W · 69 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 196.77$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.95 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed Yes | 33c | 182.87$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.83 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 72c | 178.59$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.76 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 58c | 167.83$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.19 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.67 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe82a…db8dbacked Yes | 20c | 158.11$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.45 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed No | 80c | 156.93$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.54 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 56c | 149.83$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.6 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x541e…c80bbacked Yes | 45c | 132.83$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.12 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked Yes | 20c | 126.88$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7747…7cf2backed Yes | 37c | 124.25$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.36 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 22c | 122.48$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.34 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Yes | 50c | 120.56$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.46 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b13…6e6abacked Yes | 17c | 100.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 23c | 100.39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf876…8975backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd731…4199backed No | 80c | 99.38$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.94 | 92 | 73.9%68 W · 24 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f57…c3acbacked No | 16c | 98.65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.41 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ead…b7bfbacked No | 20c | 90.21$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.27 | 41 | 70.7%29 W · 12 L | +7.1wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfc72…ad49backed No | 79c | 86.91$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 115 | 65.2%75 W · 40 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 79c | 86.81$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.13 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed No | 78c | 85.71$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.21 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 51c | 80.14$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.42 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 21c | 79.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 79c | 76.16$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff6…8ac5backed Yes | 18c | 75.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 70 | 34.3%24 W · 46 L | -6.2wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 20c | 71.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 20c | 61.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 67c | 61.03$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.01 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 79c | 55.62$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b1f…7b4bbacked Yes | 20c | 55.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -60%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed No | 79c | 49.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x964c…0a17backed No | 59c | 49.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 49c | 49.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 30c | 48.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 40c | 48.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 47.26$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 76c | 46.31$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed Yes | 43c | 44.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa19b…3e59backed Yes | 24c | 43.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 32c | 42.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 74c | 41.69$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.67 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 30c | 39.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 32c | 38.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14ea…998bbacked No | 33c | 37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 159 | 37.7%60 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 79c | 36.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 72c | 34.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 67c | 33.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1d…de1cbacked Yes | 43c | 33.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 146 | 45.2%66 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 40c | 31.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0416…616cbacked No | 77c | 30.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | +6.9wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 76c | 30.28$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc801…cefebacked No | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…b5b2backed No | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44b7…dc81backed No | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x672c…6942backed No | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4725…8bf2backed No | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf8…8634backed No | 59c | 25.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 75c | 23.76$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 80c | 22.55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked Yes | 56c | 21.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 209 | 28.7%60 W · 149 L | -45.3wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 55c | 19.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 61c | 17.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 74c | 13.76$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.58 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on April 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on April 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on April 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.