South American Leagues · resolved market
CF Pachuca vs. Club Santos Laguna: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x38da4119394970fcab9081018af3a9ffff8fc687f45521ac0c2f6b4b68f51333
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,670
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,869
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,670 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 51c | 9,401$4,805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,805.28 | 110 | 55.5%61 W · 49 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 50c | 4,218$2,113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,105.04 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 52c | 2,108$1,088 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020.46 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 53c | 1,181$628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.5 | 824 | 34.5%284 W · 540 L | -17.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 49c | 1,176$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.06 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 43c | 543.76$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.05 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 50c | 472.75$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.76 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Under | 76c | 300$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Over | 24c | 300$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fb…28dabacked Under | 36c | 280.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed Over | 56c | 114.13$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.24 | 159 | 56.6%90 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Over | 55c | 107.16$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.12 | 477 | 58.1%277 W · 200 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Over | 55c | 97.57$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.51 | 412 | 56.6%233 W · 179 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x672d…97f1backed Over | 61c | 96.38$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.59 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Over | 65c | 93.17$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.23 | 650 | 58%377 W · 273 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 55c | 88.94$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.77 | 477 | 56%267 W · 210 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked Over | 51c | 87.07$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.38 | 181 | 54.7%99 W · 82 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d82…11f4backed Under | 52c | 85.97$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 27c | 71.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 852 | 20.7%176 W · 676 L | -85.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 75c | 64.78$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.19 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8f…4812backed Under | 76c | 63.16$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…f354backed Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.95 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Over | 76c | 42.11$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88d1…e058backed Under | 36c | 42.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 46cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked Over | 66c | 41.16$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 145 | 70.3%102 W · 43 L | +22.6wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 47c | 41.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.95 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Over | 64c | 39.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.34 | 636 | 57.5%366 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Over | 64c | 39.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.27 | 367 | 57.5%211 W · 156 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Over | 55c | 36.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.31 | 200 | 59.5%119 W · 81 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Over | 65c | 34.74$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 190 | 56.3%107 W · 83 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 42c | 31.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 336 | 58.3%196 W · 140 L | +32.4wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8390…3773backed Over | 51c | 29.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 49c | 29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 42c | 28.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.71 | 313 | 55.6%174 W · 139 L | +24.8wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Under | 44c | 28.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 166 | 53.6%89 W · 77 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66fc…2720backed Over | 52c | 27.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Under | 43c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 221 | 45.7%101 W · 120 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74d0…de45backed Over | 50c | 24.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…a84fbacked Over | 62c | 23.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Over | 53c | 20.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 193 | 56%108 W · 85 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Over | 80c | 18.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.76 | 293 | 62.5%183 W · 110 L | +13.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb7…ca4abacked Over | 73c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CF Pachuca vs. Club Santos Laguna: O/U 4.5this page
- CF Pachuca vs. Club Santos Laguna: O/U 1.5Over won
- CF Pachuca vs. Club Santos Laguna: O/U 2.5Over won
- CF Pachuca vs. Club Santos Laguna: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: CF Pachuca (-1.5)CF Pachuca won
- Spread: CF Pachuca (-2.5)Club Santos Laguna won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.