Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on July 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x38de088a79802112aa3b96bdfe9bba3c83dbe025ca293a53f09b371ce5d82dd1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,710
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,640
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,710 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 80c | 449.8$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.04 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 15c | 378.04$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.27 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5484…84e8backed No | 71c | 262.82$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.05 | 111 | 69.4%77 W · 34 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 18c | 215.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.85 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 8c | 209.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 25c | 177.46$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.95 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 78c | 168$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.56 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 21c | 132.66$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.18 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 28c | 128.14$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.49 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 76c | 127.33$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.51 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 52c | 126.33$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.09 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 16c | 120.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 18c | 109.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 20c | 109.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 18c | 99.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 35c | 98.13$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.9 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 76c | 91.42$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.22 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 61c | 73.4$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.84 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71fc…eec9backed Yes | 18c | 68.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 21c | 64.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked No | 78c | 61.38$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 29c | 59.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 23c | 56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10ab…b2e8backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 80c | 46$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 46c | 45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 27c | 45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 73c | 44.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a6d…b19dbacked Yes | 41c | 44.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 41c | 43.55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.78 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 36c | 41.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 53c | 40.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.94 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 78c | 38.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 49c | 34.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 62c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 44c | 29.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 77c | 29.22$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 49c | 27.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf15b…8c10backed No | 78c | 15.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.31 | 93 | 66.7%62 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 80c | 15.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.06 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3733…8810backed No | 78c | 15.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.35 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on July 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on July 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on July 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.