Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on July 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb5786c163d5622b4e7b78d74fc1f3fb09084f382d4440cab87868d83cc9f1219
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,457
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,818
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,457 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 62c | 308.8$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.4 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 61c | 247.7$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.63 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 50c | 230.44$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.16 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 20c | 198.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.24 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 52c | 196.14$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.4 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 63c | 172.88$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.27 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 49c | 166.12$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.89 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 35c | 160.91$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.34 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 36c | 160.17$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.93 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 55c | 155$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.39 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 34c | 134.73$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.01 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 56c | 122.37$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.4 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 37c | 120$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.6 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 45c | 119.25$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.88 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 118.44$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.86 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 45c | 102$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.56 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd503…325fbacked Yes | 41c | 97.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.63 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 35c | 93.56$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.81 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 43c | 79.33$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 35c | 76.31$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.64 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 54c | 75$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 49c | 74.55$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.05 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 64c | 74.06$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed Yes | 38c | 70$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.4 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 57c | 68.26$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x116a…a2f2backed Yes | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 58c | 62$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.96 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed No | 66c | 60$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec3d…0a55backed Yes | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 144 | 34%49 W · 95 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked Yes | 51c | 55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.95 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 65c | 52.57$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.17 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 65c | 52.36$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.93 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 36c | 52.28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.56 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 37c | 51.53$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.57 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa79a…88d0backed No | 66c | 50.57$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.38 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -7.0wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 35c | 49.79$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.37 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed No | 28c | 44.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 30c | 44.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc11c…b9b2backed No | 65c | 43.84$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 47c | 41.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 67c | 41.33$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 37c | 40.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.86 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed Yes | 38c | 40.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.64 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 54c | 39.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed Yes | 80c | 39.86$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 47c | 39.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 65c | 37.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb430…efc9backed Yes | 37c | 37.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.87 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 60c | 35.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.53 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 56c | 35.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.78 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe88e…03e8backed No | 64c | 35.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 44c | 31.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.84 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 44c | 31.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a53…1ee8backed No | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…44c4backed Yes | 37c | 29.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 154 | 49.4%76 W · 78 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 37c | 29.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.47 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 55c | 25.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.77 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a60…7b81backed Yes | 57c | 25.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b8d…f707backed No | 60c | 25.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72be…9613backed No | 52c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 56c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc03…3c05backed No | 54c | 21.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9291…8a20backed No | 63c | 21.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 65cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 57c | 20.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6d…4abebacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 69 | 69.6%48 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fba…006dbacked No | 62c | 19.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 65c | 19.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 64c | 18.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 70c | 17.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3733…8810backed No | 67c | 15.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on July 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on July 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.