South American Leagues · resolved market
Estudiantes de La Plata vs. CA Independiente: O/U 0.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x38f1b195436be8a9192561328061fd22267f817b7c3e8f8c9f11a4b9d1c83894
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,678
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,858
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,678 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x27e4…4803backed Over | 65c | 3,000$1,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,049.99 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 62cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 39c | 2,893$1,117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,117.42 | 8,112 | 48.7%3,951 W · 4,161 L | +27.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Under | 52c | 1,103$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.12 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Over | 51c | 1,100$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539 | 465 | 30.3%141 W · 324 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 6c | 817.94$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.97 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c8…142bbacked Under | 15c | 646.67$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 112 | 20.5%23 W · 89 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 62c | 624.54$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.2 | 2,287 | 34.3%784 W · 1,503 L | -30.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 27c | 615.08$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.67 | 5,762 | 45.4%2,614 W · 3,148 L | +94.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbef…0c11backed Over | 68c | 519.93$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.38 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 6c | 336.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 64c | 300.26$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.09 | 538 | 36.8%198 W · 340 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 12c | 290.33$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.15 | 184 | 26.1%48 W · 136 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f6…73fabacked Over | 73c | 273.97$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.97 | 56 | 60.7%34 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd0…1f67backed Over | 64c | 250$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9958…b9acbacked Over | 73c | 228.89$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.8 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db2…dacabacked Over | 63c | 110$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.3 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2e…c5d2backed Over | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd325…8c5fbacked Under | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0464…67dabacked Under | 49c | 84.49$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.02 | 138 | 56.5%78 W · 60 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x472c…5ae2backed Over | 73c | 69.93$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.88 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe19b…4b86backed Over | 73c | 49.31$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.31 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 45c | 44.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 632 | 61.2%387 W · 245 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 852 | 20.7%176 W · 676 L | -85.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Under | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 88 | 21.6%19 W · 69 L | -7.6wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9bc8…a613backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a97…90b1backed Over | 53c | 23.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3bfa…5e79backed Over | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Estudiantes de La Plata vs. CA Independiente: O/U 0.5this page
- Estudiantes de La Plata vs. CA Independiente: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Estudiantes de La Plata vs. CA Independiente: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Estudiantes de La Plata vs. CA Independiente: CA Independiente O/U 0.5Over won
- Estudiantes de La Plata vs. CA Independiente: O/U 1.5Over won
- Estudiantes de La Plata vs. CA Independiente: O/U 2.5Under won
- Estudiantes de La Plata vs. CA Independiente: O/U 3.5Under won
- Estudiantes de La Plata vs. CA Independiente: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CA Independiente (-1.5)CA Independiente won
- Spread: CA Independiente (-2.5)Estudiantes de La Plata won
- Spread: Estudiantes de La Plata (-1.5)CA Independiente won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.