South American Leagues · resolved market
Estudiantes de La Plata vs. CA Independiente: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb4178245131cf8f5044376462211b9f81db12dc229b55d700df7486b30f54b87
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,811
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,336
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,811 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 64c | 5,507$3,505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,504.91 | 8,112 | 48.7%3,951 W · 4,161 L | +27.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 63c | 4,795$3,023 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,023.04 | 2,287 | 34.3%784 W · 1,503 L | -30.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41d2…d7c9backed Over | 49c | 3,616$1,764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,851.89 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +15%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc867…8b00backed Over | 13c | 2,282$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,982.14 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +83.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 37c | 1,724$633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,091.51 | 752 | 40.8%307 W · 445 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1907…85b9backed Over | 39c | 1,634$637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$996.52 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -43%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x715d…a4babacked Over | 29c | 823.23$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$584.49 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 62c | 674.27$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.22 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 38c | 666.96$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.77 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd871…6bbabacked Over | 35c | 661.8$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.42 | 129 | 40.3%52 W · 77 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 40c | 546.36$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.55 | 1,231 | 53.9%663 W · 568 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Under | 38c | 529.76$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.31 | 646 | 33.1%214 W · 432 L | -24.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 65c | 364.92$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.8 | 538 | 36.8%198 W · 340 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5d…df19backed Under | 45c | 335.97$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Over | 60c | 325$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf4…40fabacked Over | 36c | 266.71$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.69 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 71c | 261.15$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.2 | 5,762 | 45.4%2,614 W · 3,148 L | +94.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f0c…7047backed Over | 48c | 217.84$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.9 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0464…67dabacked Under | 33c | 208.39$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.96 | 138 | 56.5%78 W · 60 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 12c | 202$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 184 | 26.1%48 W · 136 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa9…09fabacked Under | 62c | 156.25$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.19 | 106 | 35.8%38 W · 68 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +106.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 49c | 154.45$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.68 | 824 | 34.5%284 W · 540 L | -17.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 38c | 151.93$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.24 | 1,282 | 53.7%689 W · 593 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2572…bb08backed Under | 80c | 125$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 80cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…44e9backed Under | 40c | 121.59$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.64 | 182 | 47.8%87 W · 95 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1010…d793backed Under | 38c | 120$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 253 | 45.1%114 W · 139 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf5…2307backed Under | 53c | 106.68$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.54 | 86 | 57%49 W · 37 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f0…fd92backed Over | 63c | 104.66$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.42 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…79d3backed Under | 39c | 103.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.22 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b16…1290backed Over | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8cd…ed53backed Under | 62c | 94.88$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.09 | 83 | 75.9%63 W · 20 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Over | 62c | 88.87$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 95 | 51.6%49 W · 46 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 56c | 84.43$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.68 | 951 | 55.8%531 W · 420 L | +31.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Under | 69c | 74.83$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.89 | 464 | 49.6%230 W · 234 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 61c | 74.28$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff2…1c10backed Over | 39c | 65.78$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.13 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 50c | 64.19$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.95 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Over | 43c | 64$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.76 | 352 | 46.9%165 W · 187 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf6…baf9backed Over | 49c | 59.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.79 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf79d…0289backed Over | 55c | 54.42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 74 | 67.6%50 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 40c | 51.81$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.09 | 2,173 | 43.6%948 W · 1,225 L | -55.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 20c | 51.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.19 | 852 | 20.7%176 W · 676 L | -85.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x66bf…07e8backed Over | 43c | 51.16$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.16 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2e…c5d2backed Over | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 57c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 449 | 39.2%176 W · 273 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Under | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Under | 29c | 40.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 45 | 6.7%3 W · 42 L | -16.3wins | -0.36per pick | 43cpaid | -90.1%equal weight | 24-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0xe29c…a31dbacked Over | 39c | 38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.37 | 168 | 45.2%76 W · 92 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 69c | 36.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 517 | 50.7%262 W · 255 L | +28.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 66c | 34.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 632 | 61.2%387 W · 245 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb651…b4f7backed Over | 54c | 30.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.02 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf1…7cb7backed Over | 62c | 23.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12c8…20d5backed Over | 50c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Under | 69c | 17.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 333 | 65.5%218 W · 115 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb9…c170backed Under | 80c | 12.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 60 | 78.3%47 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 80cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Estudiantes de La Plata vs. CA Independiente: O/U 1.5this page
- Estudiantes de La Plata vs. CA Independiente: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Estudiantes de La Plata vs. CA Independiente: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Estudiantes de La Plata vs. CA Independiente: CA Independiente O/U 0.5Over won
- Estudiantes de La Plata vs. CA Independiente: O/U 0.5Over won
- Estudiantes de La Plata vs. CA Independiente: O/U 2.5Under won
- Estudiantes de La Plata vs. CA Independiente: O/U 3.5Under won
- Estudiantes de La Plata vs. CA Independiente: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CA Independiente (-1.5)CA Independiente won
- Spread: CA Independiente (-2.5)Estudiantes de La Plata won
- Spread: Estudiantes de La Plata (-1.5)CA Independiente won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.