South American Leagues · resolved market
Estudiantes de La Plata vs. CA Independiente: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x45bc338d60eaab82e784cb3dd9d23974f5f2bee77cd7a236319ba017ca2ffd28
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,495
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,213
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,495 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc867…8b00backed Over | 3c | 6,412$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +83.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 77c | 4,635$3,559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,075.97 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10a6…4d8bbacked Over | 33c | 4,330$1,429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,428.77 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0dbe…9013backed Over | 33c | 3,100$1,023 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,023 | 185 | 43.2%80 W · 105 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 67c | 2,506$1,679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$827.2 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 19c | 2,482$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.2 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf5…2307backed Over | 24c | 1,379$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.07 | 86 | 57%49 W · 37 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 28c | 1,247$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.76 | 752 | 40.8%307 W · 445 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 67c | 853.6$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.05 | 1,282 | 53.7%689 W · 593 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1907…85b9backed Over | 31c | 773.79$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.55 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -43%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 67c | 746$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.18 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 67c | 746$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.18 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 67c | 746$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.18 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 67c | 500$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 559 | 46%257 W · 302 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 11c | 460.72$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.47 | 824 | 34.5%284 W · 540 L | -17.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0b…3790backed Over | 9c | 366.02$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.94 | 92 | 7.6%7 W · 85 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 77c | 228.76$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.85 | 951 | 55.8%531 W · 420 L | +31.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…44e9backed Under | 67c | 221.82$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.2 | 182 | 47.8%87 W · 95 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Over | 10c | 204.36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 464 | 49.6%230 W · 234 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3740…a935backed Under | 69c | 200$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.81 | 103 | 64.1%66 W · 37 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 18c | 186.33$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.66 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 9c | 184.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 517 | 50.7%262 W · 255 L | +28.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 31c | 168.75$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.82 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 11c | 161.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 1,038 | 49.4%513 W · 525 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3b…28bdbacked Over | 33c | 160.61$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…2fc9backed Over | 37c | 160.22$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.51 | 85 | 54.1%46 W · 39 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 31c | 152.08$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.14 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8e…944ebacked Under | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 131 | 67.9%89 W · 42 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 73c | 114.27$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.38 | 896 | 45.4%407 W · 489 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 18c | 86.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 852 | 20.7%176 W · 676 L | -85.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x11f4…12dabacked Under | 79c | 75.53$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.53 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | -4.6wins | -0.11per pick | 69cpaid | -18%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Under | 70c | 71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 720 | 58.8%423 W · 297 L | +29.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 67c | 56$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed3…0a22backed Over | 33c | 36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 220 | 58.6%129 W · 91 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 146 | 43.2%63 W · 83 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd0…1f67backed Over | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9c0…c6f9backed Under | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 55cpaid | -40%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf504…0111backed Under | 78c | 21.84$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 61 | 68.9%42 W · 19 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 65c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 700 | 55.7%390 W · 310 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 77c | 18.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 630 | 61.3%386 W · 244 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Estudiantes de La Plata vs. CA Independiente: O/U 2.5this page
- Estudiantes de La Plata vs. CA Independiente: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Estudiantes de La Plata vs. CA Independiente: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Estudiantes de La Plata vs. CA Independiente: CA Independiente O/U 0.5Over won
- Estudiantes de La Plata vs. CA Independiente: O/U 0.5Over won
- Estudiantes de La Plata vs. CA Independiente: O/U 1.5Over won
- Estudiantes de La Plata vs. CA Independiente: O/U 3.5Under won
- Estudiantes de La Plata vs. CA Independiente: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CA Independiente (-1.5)CA Independiente won
- Spread: CA Independiente (-2.5)Estudiantes de La Plata won
- Spread: Estudiantes de La Plata (-1.5)CA Independiente won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.