Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x38fe8dfc0e4fe9c967f1e6490d243f0f0b9bb2147bec1442b2a9da4a33d71891
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,579
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,577
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,579 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 31c | 260.97$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7581…2ca4backed Yes | 30c | 212.41$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.73 | 208 | 33.2%69 W · 139 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 24c | 193.54$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.45 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed No | 76c | 154.7$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.87 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 141$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.05 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 22c | 134.03$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 79c | 125.1$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.65 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 78c | 121.9$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb501…9a53backed Yes | 23c | 117.16$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.53 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…feb0backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…0500backed Yes | 29c | 72.03$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f10…563bbacked Yes | 19c | 64.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 23c | 63.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 24c | 58.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 78c | 51.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 71c | 51$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…3b5dbacked Yes | 26c | 48.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 137 | 38.7%53 W · 84 L | +13.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 32c | 47.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 79c | 42.03$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 76c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 68c | 26.31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 67c | 24.78$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d46…f816backed No | 71c | 24.14$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 71c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 80c | 23.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 68c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 70c | 21.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 80c | 16.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.37 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 68c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb35…0988backed No | 70c | 15.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ce…e92abacked No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 124 | 67.7%84 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 32°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 33°C on June 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.