Us Politics · resolved market
Will all remaining Trump cabinet picks be confirmed?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x390edd321597d735e012e89f4fa8086afd1b858d5617e36a30db01bf9f85ca89
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $78,999
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $71,479
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,999 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 5c | 5,850$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.43 | 114 | 19.3%22 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed No | 62c | 5,811$3,628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,183.06 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | +10.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d37…f4a4backed No | 5c | 4,628$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,386.62 | 82 | 8.5%7 W · 75 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed No | 2c | 3,615$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,556.06 | 115 | 38.3%44 W · 71 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Yes | 54c | 2,773$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | +18.3wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes | 11c | 1,800$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.8 | 111 | 20.7%23 W · 88 L | +10.9wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +212.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed No | 2c | 1,708$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,681.09 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 1cpaid | +230%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed Yes | 11c | 1,620$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.82 | 111 | 21.6%24 W · 87 L | +11.4wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +179.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed No | 1c | 1,611$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,589.85 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +105.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc522…fbc3backed Yes | 5c | 1,347$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.2 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1514…2624backed No | 4c | 1,300$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,241.63 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 10c | 920$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$830.44 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked No | 59c | 698.32$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.45 | 187 | 46.5%87 W · 100 L | +16.5wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e6…b1afbacked No | 3c | 540.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.57 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked No | 8c | 417.69$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.69 | 152 | 43.4%66 W · 86 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe08f…2ad4backed No | 7c | 412.57$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.69 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d6…df23backed No | 7c | 342.86$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.93per pick | 7cpaid | +1,328.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed No | 5c | 225$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.75 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked No | 10c | 200$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.8 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09c8…e78bbacked No | 7c | 173.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.42 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 14c | 100.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.09 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x58b0…f9a8backed Yes | 72c | 55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.81 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 78c | 51.72$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.28 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9c…7b76backed Yes | 74c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 72cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.