NHL · resolved market
Spread: Stars (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x393aada05f076029c444d19231b8cadb33dae7c55bd6ae16222ded9e39e01e11
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bluesof Stars, Blues
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,954
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,061
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,954 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9976…67dabacked Blues | 57c | 7,526$4,290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,236.09 | 198 | 48.5%96 W · 102 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd09…a188backed Stars | 45c | 5,773$2,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,590.18 | 617 | 48.5%299 W · 318 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x730f…952cbacked Blues | 56c | 2,385$1,335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,049.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f69…1ffebacked Stars | 44c | 2,385$1,049 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,049.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Stars | 43c | 2,237$962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$961.84 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Blues | 55c | 1,824$1,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$820.63 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Blues | 56c | 1,820$1,019 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800.79 | 619 | 59.1%366 W · 253 L | +17.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd622…8b56backed Stars | 44c | 1,793$789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$789.04 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a08…f99ebacked Blues | 56c | 1,425$798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d8f…2999backed Stars | 44c | 1,425$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$627 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Stars | 44c | 771.62$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.85 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Blues | 56c | 650.95$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.55 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Stars | 44c | 525$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…3c72backed Stars | 44c | 260.18$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.48 | 310 | 47.4%147 W · 163 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Stars | 43c | 250$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.5 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Blues | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…9730backed Blues | 57c | 69.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.96 | 497 | 46.5%231 W · 266 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…7696backed Stars | 44c | 67.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Blues | 57c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.7 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da1…c13bbacked Stars | 43c | 59.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.79 | 366 | 48.9%179 W · 187 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Stars | 44c | 54.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 196 | 52.6%103 W · 93 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Blues | 56c | 53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.32 | 317 | 53.3%169 W · 148 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c9e…bba8backed Stars | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ef…cdd9backed Stars | 45c | 48.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d1…5557backed Stars | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 101 | 67.3%68 W · 33 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b9…0a9bbacked Stars | 47c | 42.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Stars | 38c | 42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Blues | 62c | 42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd6…16abbacked Stars | 44c | 29.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 308 | 59.4%183 W · 125 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Stars | 43c | 28.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb34…a390backed Stars | 44c | 27.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea6a…3ee2backed Stars | 73c | 25.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 524 | 51%267 W · 257 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Blues | 57c | 24.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 262 | 43.5%114 W · 148 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Blues | 57c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 619 | 53.8%333 W · 286 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a8…2d58backed Blues | 56c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Blues | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1,406 | 47%661 W · 745 L | +58.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Stars (-1.5)this page
- Blues vs. StarsStars won
- Blues vs. Stars: O/U 5.5Over won
- Blues vs. Stars: O/U 6.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.