MLB · resolved market
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39479d4491f1f80fc6cef5cc35b95d66ba9653b40ecf5c56760195b1915a851f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago White Soxof Arizona Diamondbacks, Chicago White Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,122
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,057
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,122 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Chicago White Sox | 58c | 888.89$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.33 | 1,922 | 53.4%1,027 W · 895 L | +28.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8180…208bbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 42c | 770.39$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.84 | 181 | 51.4%93 W · 88 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3920…23e7backed Chicago White Sox | 59c | 685.77$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.17 | 251 | 49.8%125 W · 126 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 39c | 660$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.2 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e77…8c33backed Chicago White Sox | 60c | 552.78$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.11 | 283 | 50.9%144 W · 139 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 41c | 397.42$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.19 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 42c | 199.99$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc740…217ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 43c | 170.86$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.47 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Chicago White Sox | 59c | 170.7$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.99 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Chicago White Sox | 58c | 151.26$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.53 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Chicago White Sox | 57c | 117.98$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.73 | 2,329 | 49.8%1,160 W · 1,169 L | +41.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Chicago White Sox | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 217 | 48.4%105 W · 112 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 41c | 75$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Chicago White Sox | 78c | 59.21$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Chicago White Sox | 57c | 56.02$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.97 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…8f36backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 43c | 44.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 619 | 48.6%301 W · 318 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Chicago White Sox | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5a…59b9backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 41c | 35.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 41c | 35.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 443 | 47.9%212 W · 231 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 43c | 33.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Chicago White Sox | 59c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c9…a454backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 41c | 25.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | -10.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)this page
- Chicago White Sox vs. Arizona DiamondbacksChicago White Sox won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 12.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 13.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. Arizona DiamondbacksYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.