MLB · resolved market
Chicago White Sox vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3948a888bbd436c1fe61f23939eac17f1b779055fe0fb652b22fcd5787691279
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,449
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,386
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,449 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 22c | 773.75$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.83 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 38c | 215.75$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.98 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 61c | 203.95$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.53 | 6,128 | 55.4%3,394 W · 2,734 L | +347.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 55c | 187.38$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.17 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 38c | 128.16$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.7 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 53c | 124.53$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 5,517 | 50.6%2,791 W · 2,726 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Over | 42c | 117.31$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.43 | 261 | 51%133 W · 128 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Under | 54c | 115.57$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.41 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 45c | 108.07$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.44 | 1,593 | 48.6%774 W · 819 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked Over | 46c | 103.14$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.69 | 93 | 49.5%46 W · 47 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Over | 46c | 99.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 40c | 97.57$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.19 | 1,970 | 53.1%1,047 W · 923 L | +45.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44e4…f624backed Over | 47c | 46.3$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.54 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9856…7014backed Over | 46c | 43.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +5.1wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Under | 54c | 42.85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e13…b909backed Under | 54c | 39.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 62c | 32.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 9,862 | 46.4%4,579 W · 5,283 L | +40.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked Over | 47c | 32.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 230 | 48.3%111 W · 119 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe903…0b88backed Under | 66c | 22.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ca…e04dbacked Under | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Under | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 352 | 40.3%142 W · 210 L | -23.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago White Sox vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5this page
- Chicago White Sox vs. Miami MarlinsChicago White Sox won
- NRFI: Chicago White Sox vs. Miami MarlinsYes won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.