MLB · resolved market
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x85555c661e0d850af2d76a012f643f9e7a68b5d1b5f1c9d2c696f46b5fde91e5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago White Soxof Chicago White Sox, Miami Marlins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,735
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,884
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,735 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Miami Marlins | 70c | 1,259$882 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$881.9 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Miami Marlins | 65c | 631$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.15 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91ba…8e5cbacked Chicago White Sox | 35c | 608.58$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.58 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 44cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Miami Marlins | 34c | 531.4$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.52 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Chicago White Sox | 30c | 506.36$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.56 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Chicago White Sox | 68c | 499.86$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.96 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e96…f2debacked Chicago White Sox | 34c | 362.13$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.01 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Miami Marlins | 7c | 357.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1489…9924backed Miami Marlins | 66c | 355.69$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.75 | 185 | 53%98 W · 87 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Chicago White Sox | 29c | 261$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.31 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Chicago White Sox | 35c | 197.28$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.51 | 341 | 45.2%154 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Chicago White Sox | 64c | 117.85$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.9 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Chicago White Sox | 29c | 109.28$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.59 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9348…8cfbbacked Chicago White Sox | 68c | 104.86$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.27 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Miami Marlins | 31c | 74.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 191 | 43.5%83 W · 108 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Chicago White Sox | 29c | 73.32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.06 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -9.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35f5…c6a6backed Miami Marlins | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…eeb8backed Miami Marlins | 69c | 65$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.07 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 71cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Miami Marlins | 25c | 65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 155 | 50.3%78 W · 77 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Chicago White Sox | 42c | 64.08$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.16 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Chicago White Sox | 29c | 54.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.26 | 323 | 48.9%158 W · 165 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Miami Marlins | 65c | 51.64$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.71 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Chicago White Sox | 29c | 43.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.79 | 144 | 44.4%64 W · 80 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Chicago White Sox | 31c | 42.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.29 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Miami Marlins | 66c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd77e…e9b9backed Miami Marlins | 55c | 36.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ca…e04dbacked Miami Marlins | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9856…7014backed Miami Marlins | 68c | 29.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +5.1wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbe96…4a6dbacked Miami Marlins | 69c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.33per pick | 73cpaid | -49%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)this page
- Chicago White Sox vs. Miami MarlinsChicago White Sox won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Over won
- NRFI: Chicago White Sox vs. Miami MarlinsYes won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.