MLB · resolved market
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc2be13eb8613b801038d7a728676f66ed14cb1d299bf351418cc064ba8224bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago White Soxof Miami Marlins, Chicago White Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,045
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,831
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,045 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc807…c12bbacked Chicago White Sox | 62c | 14,337$8,889 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,448.13 | 501 | 53.5%268 W · 233 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed Miami Marlins | 38c | 9,563$3,634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,633.89 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b6…fa47backed Miami Marlins | 38c | 2,880$1,094 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,094.31 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Miami Marlins | 38c | 748.26$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.83 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Chicago White Sox | 62c | 699.66$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.92 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Miami Marlins | 37c | 507.87$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.91 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Miami Marlins | 38c | 492.12$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.98 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x622b…5a4abacked Miami Marlins | 38c | 394.35$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.85 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69c2…40cfbacked Miami Marlins | 38c | 383.97$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.91 | 182 | 39.6%72 W · 110 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Miami Marlins | 38c | 165.65$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.95 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Miami Marlins | 19c | 99.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Chicago White Sox | 60c | 75$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe46d…8b87backed Miami Marlins | 40c | 73.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.57 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf137…9341backed Miami Marlins | 38c | 69.51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.42 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Miami Marlins | 38c | 63.84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 261 | 51%133 W · 128 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5676…7da7backed Miami Marlins | 38c | 59.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Chicago White Sox | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b65…6518backed Miami Marlins | 37c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -5.2wins | -0.19per pick | 51cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xffae…adaebacked Chicago White Sox | 63c | 42.26$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 589 | 43.1%254 W · 335 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Chicago White Sox | 67c | 39.47$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd310…333ebacked Chicago White Sox | 70c | 19.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)this page
- Chicago White Sox vs. Miami MarlinsChicago White Sox won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Over won
- NRFI: Chicago White Sox vs. Miami MarlinsYes won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.