TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Game Handicap: RE (-1.5) vs MODUS (+1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
MODUSof Rune Eaters, MODUS
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,637
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,638

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,637 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8725…eb10backed MODUS64c1,218$775 inWon+$442.8977941.1%320 W · 459 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked Rune Eaters36c1,218$443 inLost-$442.8999844.4%443 W · 555 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe694…0a08backed Rune Eaters43c1,162$500 inLost-$499.6618152.5%95 W · 86 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1311…d450backed MODUS57c1,000$570 inWon+$43021146.9%99 W · 112 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6376…0d2abacked MODUS68c468.75$319 inWon+$15016147.2%76 W · 85 L-0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe16d…5e30backed Rune Eaters32c468.75$150 inLost-$1501,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x09a6…73c7backed Rune Eaters47c213.04$100 inLost-$1006654.5%36 W · 30 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked MODUS60c191.56$115 inWon+$76.3726445.1%119 W · 145 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc754…4b1dbacked MODUS57c162$92 inWon+$69.663330.3%10 W · 23 L-3.1wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-22.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8de8…2a38backed Rune Eaters36c148.08$53 inLost-$53.31812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.5wins-0.31per pick44cpaid-76.9%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x2405…e055backed MODUS64c148.08$95 inWon+$53.319440.4%38 W · 56 L-7.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-27.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed MODUS41c128.53$53 inWon+$75.5662841.1%258 W · 370 L-17.8wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-18.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked MODUS45c114.13$51 inWon+$62.8930844.8%138 W · 170 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f87…f04ebacked Rune Eaters67c100.74$67 inLost-$67.511250.9%57 W · 55 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2da3…f258backed MODUS59c96.12$57 inWon+$39.5743860.5%265 W · 173 L+44.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+14.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked MODUS38c74.99$28 inWon+$46.822240.1%89 W · 133 L-14.9wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-24.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xac06…f93dbacked MODUS58c50$29 inWon+$212263.6%14 W · 8 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+0.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb7ab…16d0backed Rune Eaters58c47.21$28 inLost-$27.5643067%288 W · 142 L+31.9wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+11.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf20b…e27dbacked MODUS55c45.62$25 inWon+$20.4611746.2%54 W · 63 L-0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2140…0e12backed MODUS63c35$22 inWon+$12.9512646%58 W · 68 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5690…7a58backed MODUS36c32.41$12 inWon+$20.74837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick23cpaid+45.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed MODUS62c32.4$20 inWon+$12.2952950.9%269 W · 260 L+0.8wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90d4…2deebacked MODUS35c31.96$11 inWon+$20.771233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick22cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2754…1668backed Rune Eaters51c24.16$12 inLost-$12.43060%18 W · 12 L+3.4wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+23.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7aa7…afb4backed Rune Eaters63c16.99$11 inLost-$10.646857.4%39 W · 29 L+3.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.