South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CA Vélez Sarsfield win on 2026-03-02?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39508d9572f100faa36090ca9ddc87c8f6be636fcd8263d2bdbc8bf0d2f529f0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,212
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,085
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,212 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 16c | 2,179$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.66 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bcf…75c6backed Yes | 73c | 1,671$1,227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.22 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 32c | 884.7$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.95 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xace6…e599backed Yes | 25c | 645.8$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.35 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 72c | 495.24$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.91 | 849 | 43.8%372 W · 477 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed No | 26c | 494.72$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.12 | 297 | 47.1%140 W · 157 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 76c | 494$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.44 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 5c | 357$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 329 | 36.5%120 W · 209 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 31c | 306.77$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.44 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Yes | 33c | 281$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.44 | 175 | 42.3%74 W · 101 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64a8…7bc3backed Yes | 72c | 274.86$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.58 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 70cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44b6…98b4backed No | 41c | 242.95$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.61 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | -6.8wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 23c | 217.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.79 | 817 | 40.8%333 W · 484 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa072…9e34backed No | 29c | 205.64$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.83 | 104 | 42.3%44 W · 60 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 77c | 193.61$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.7 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 65c | 187$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.9 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…20dfbacked Yes | 27c | 185.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.37 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 53c | 174.86$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.98 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x055a…b4f2backed No | 77c | 174.5$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.37 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fcd…42f2backed No | 77c | 166.41$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.77 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Yes | 61c | 154.41$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.19 | 211 | 32.7%69 W · 142 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x866a…de80backed Yes | 23c | 143.48$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.48 | 138 | 14.5%20 W · 118 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa57…a128backed Yes | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed No | 75c | 135$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.25 | 194 | 60.3%117 W · 77 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 36c | 133.5$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.06 | 494 | 49%242 W · 252 L | +22.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd094…271bbacked Yes | 23c | 127.83$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.43 | 132 | 28%37 W · 95 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed No | 75c | 115$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.25 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x891b…67b5backed Yes | 25c | 102.48$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.86 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f02…12f5backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 160 | 41.3%66 W · 94 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07a4…b920backed Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 89 | 53.9%48 W · 41 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed No | 29c | 78.29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 284 | 43%122 W · 162 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.92 | 402 | 42%169 W · 233 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9135…a63ebacked Yes | 68c | 70$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 23c | 64.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 716 | 19.7%141 W · 575 L | -49.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7398…f4b6backed No | 75c | 60$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…004abacked No | 75c | 60$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…f218backed No | 77c | 59.98$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.89 | 170 | 66.5%113 W · 57 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2326…78d9backed Yes | 24c | 54.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.17 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb9…af3cbacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…05debacked Yes | 76c | 49.34$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 135 | 48.9%66 W · 69 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 76c | 46.42$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.13 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e0…a433backed Yes | 26c | 46.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.15 | 108 | 26.9%29 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f8…73b4backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9e…b97fbacked No | 27c | 36.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd085…d971backed Yes | 36c | 30.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9b…829ebacked Yes | 64c | 30.03$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 143 | 52.4%75 W · 68 L | +15.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked No | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 96 | 57.3%55 W · 41 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 47c | 27.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 948 | 48.1%456 W · 492 L | -18.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd73b…8319backed Yes | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…7753backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb82f…9e1cbacked Yes | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 85 | 69.4%59 W · 26 L | +8.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ae…106cbacked Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe856…4711backed Yes | 80c | 19.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +3.8wins | +0.27per pick | 52cpaid | +91.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8280…a6d2backed Yes | 71c | 18.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CA Vélez Sarsfield win on 2026-03-02?this page
- Will Estudiantes de La Plata vs. CA Vélez Sarsfield end in a draw?No won
- Will Estudiantes de La Plata win on 2026-03-02?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.