South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Estudiantes de La Plata vs. CA Vélez Sarsfield end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb165fef056568100b9ea55c28857ae77e114ea569684406918b072355042fa9d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,192
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,391
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,192 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xae4c…dcb9backed Yes | 36c | 2,240$799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe7…820fbacked Yes | 40c | 2,185$874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$873.87 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bba…cf14backed No | 67c | 1,935$1,292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$643.09 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a1…3529backed No | 62c | 1,611$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.01 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…0bd2backed No | 66c | 1,551$1,024 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.31 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +114.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…ba57backed Yes | 34c | 1,548$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 70c | 1,337$934 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.06 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Yes | 44c | 1,142$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.48 | 181 | 60.2%109 W · 72 L | +8.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 36c | 989.4$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.3 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed No | 65c | 768.99$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.15 | 517 | 49.9%258 W · 259 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 27c | 694.82$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.77 | 849 | 43.8%372 W · 477 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 78c | 558.86$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.48 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed No | 61c | 547.06$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.25 | 297 | 47.1%140 W · 157 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf95a…d895backed Yes | 20c | 506.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 34c | 273.33$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.69 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…e57dbacked Yes | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 256 | 25%64 W · 192 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed No | 66c | 201.95$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.75 | 154 | 59.7%92 W · 62 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 34c | 177.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.14 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x588b…8593backed Yes | 19c | 158.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 118 | 19.5%23 W · 95 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Yes | 35c | 150$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 62c | 142.73$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.99 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99fc…9e5fbacked Yes | 35c | 140$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1248…8db1backed Yes | 35c | 137.58$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.08 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 60c | 104.28$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.54 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a72…c2a0backed Yes | 31c | 93.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 302 | 31.1%94 W · 208 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f14…c845backed No | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 35c | 80.26$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 24c | 77.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 716 | 19.7%141 W · 575 L | -49.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 34c | 77.17$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 76c | 73.35$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.84 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 34c | 66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x452f…b277backed Yes | 35c | 62.86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked No | 78c | 62$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 89 | 53.9%48 W · 41 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Yes | 39c | 56.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 270 | 53%143 W · 127 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe56a…0edfbacked No | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c3c…cf9cbacked Yes | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked No | 63c | 37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 175 | 42.3%74 W · 101 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…5536backed Yes | 34c | 30.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 96 | 57.3%55 W · 41 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…f218backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 170 | 66.5%113 W · 57 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 76c | 25.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 948 | 48.1%456 W · 492 L | -18.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2246…e958backed No | 67c | 24.52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed No | 78c | 23.74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 211 | 32.7%69 W · 142 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0568…d5a7backed No | 67c | 21.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d0…1a0fbacked No | 66c | 16.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Estudiantes de La Plata vs. CA Vélez Sarsfield end in a draw?this page
- Will CA Vélez Sarsfield win on 2026-03-02?Yes won
- Will Estudiantes de La Plata win on 2026-03-02?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.