NHL · resolved market
Utah vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x395bfdfc50ecb30ada87be86f63213cb8b8b3a564f4d5557a09003fb5e831a5d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,475
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,475 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdd23…387ebacked Over | 14c | 526.58$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.24 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +16%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d0…4f77backed Under | 25c | 501$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 26cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe817…9527backed Under | 25c | 490$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc14…95e1backed Under | 25c | 490$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 25cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88fc…4238backed Under | 25c | 409$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb3…68e4backed Under | 25c | 356$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6088…5adebacked Under | 25c | 353$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 51cpaid | +165.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07ec…0bdabacked Over | 76c | 333$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b54…50d6backed Under | 25c | 316$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f45…b156backed Under | 25c | 281$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb12f…9810backed Over | 75c | 266$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2a…39e0backed Over | 75c | 257$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe13c…30b7backed Over | 75c | 256$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 43c | 252.82$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.26 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7792…2f38backed Under | 25c | 250$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73fe…a025backed Over | 75c | 240$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x590f…339dbacked Over | 75c | 234$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7a…5a39backed Over | 75c | 234$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c42…33bebacked Over | 75c | 225$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8743…1ad0backed Over | 75c | 221$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd062…72f0backed Over | 75c | 216$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x736a…c882backed Over | 75c | 212$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6456…5e00backed Over | 75c | 212$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd31e…f6b9backed Over | 75c | 197$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1986…a434backed Over | 14c | 188.56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae5…940fbacked Over | 75c | 188$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x890e…4a05backed Over | 75c | 155$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 23c | 141.3$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.8 | 865 | 49.1%425 W · 440 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Under | 66c | 121.55$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.13 | 272 | 50%136 W · 136 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fab…8850backed Under | 72c | 101.39$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.39 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd7…6d6cbacked Over | 25c | 94.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 152 | 65.1%99 W · 53 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Under | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.8 | 820 | 43%353 W · 467 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 33c | 71.44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.94 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 37c | 60.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed52…2dbdbacked Over | 58c | 51.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 48c | 51.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.74 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Under | 32c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 565 | 53.6%303 W · 262 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 77c | 35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Over | 68c | 32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 513 | 43.3%222 W · 291 L | -21.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe52e…ac6dbacked Over | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Over | 68c | 24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 384 | 47.4%182 W · 202 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Utah vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5this page
- Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)Utah won
- Utah vs. Golden KnightsUtah won
- Utah vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5Under won
- Utah vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5Under won
- Utah vs. Golden Knights: O/U 7.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.