TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Utah vs. Golden Knights

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Utahof Utah, Golden Knights
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$696,551

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $696,551 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 959 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc257…358ebacked Utah46c88,000$40,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47,519.9548545.4%220 W · 265 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Golden Knights55c46,993$25,630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,630.0651550.7%261 W · 254 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Golden Knights55c21,105$11,512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,512.0261950.1%310 W · 309 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd92…6b2abacked Utah45c20,000$9,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,999.9614650.7%74 W · 72 L+8.5wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+13.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Golden Knights54c15,260$8,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,240.448549.7%241 W · 244 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe790…eadcbacked Golden Knights54c11,104$6,047 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,047.3627448.9%134 W · 140 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Utah45c10,000$4,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,499.9932946.8%154 W · 175 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Golden Knights54c9,532$5,147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,147.3940351.9%209 W · 194 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Golden Knights54c8,272$4,467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,466.951,55551.4%800 W · 755 L+12.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Golden Knights54c6,232$3,365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,365.451,19050.7%603 W · 587 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Golden Knights56c5,357$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00040356.3%227 W · 176 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5555…2af1backed Utah45c5,000$2,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,7504440.9%18 W · 26 L-3.5wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-21.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked Utah45c5,000$2,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,75013948.2%67 W · 72 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Utah45c4,973$2,238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,735.241,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5bc…8536backed Golden Knights55c4,906$2,698 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,698.3366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+23.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Golden Knights55c4,498$2,464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,463.5636748%176 W · 191 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Utah46c4,471$2,078 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,392.922,66451.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Golden Knights55c4,432$2,433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,432.9579350.1%397 W · 396 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Golden Knights54c4,119$2,225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,224.521,09250.4%550 W · 542 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Golden Knights54c4,000$2,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,160.0160249.5%298 W · 304 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Golden Knights55c4,000$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,199.9939752.1%207 W · 190 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44d6…9858backed Utah45c4,000$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,199.9929146.7%136 W · 155 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Golden Knights54c3,431$1,853 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,852.7533151.7%171 W · 160 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x30ce…fdcebacked Golden Knights4c3,373$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.7115057.3%86 W · 64 L+14.8wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+44.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Utah45c3,333$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,833.3360337.5%226 W · 377 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03e8…1697backed Utah44c3,281$1,444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,837.5867051%342 W · 328 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1418…6fefbacked Golden Knights54c3,200$1,728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,72827850.4%140 W · 138 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10d4…d953backed Utah46c3,050$1,403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,64744551.2%228 W · 217 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Golden Knights54c3,000$1,620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,62043548.5%211 W · 224 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Utah45c2,911$1,310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,601.1185250.2%428 W · 424 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Golden Knights56c2,679$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50031550.8%160 W · 155 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x49e5…03fdbacked Golden Knights1c2,465$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5280%0 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc08…a137backed Golden Knights1c2,323$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.730259.6%180 W · 122 L+31.0wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+16.7%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0x2586…c893backed Utah45c2,266$1,017 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,248.9383652.8%441 W · 395 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Golden Knights54c2,222$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,199.8891945.6%419 W · 500 L-27.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Utah45c2,040$918 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,122.2221849.5%108 W · 110 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Golden Knights55c2,000$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,10022747.6%108 W · 119 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e31…d698backed Golden Knights55c2,000$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,100837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick52cpaid-30.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd035…9ba6backed Utah45c2,000$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,100785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.33per pick53cpaid+68.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed Golden Knights54c2,000$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,079.9763249.5%313 W · 319 L+2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46d1…883abacked Golden Knights1c1,999$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.981560%9 W · 6 L+3.8wins+0.25per pick35cpaid+80.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xcc7b…50a6backed Utah45c1,995$898 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,097.25875%6 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+46.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbc0a…e732backed Golden Knights55c1,995$1,097 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,097.25850%4 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5393…cd1dbacked Utah45c1,995$898 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,097.25862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+28.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeed6…3161backed Golden Knights55c1,995$1,097 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,097.251136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-27%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x16eb…b7e1backed Utah45c1,990$896 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,094.5966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+30.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x24e9…5376backed Golden Knights55c1,990$1,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,094.5933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-35.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Utah45c1,989$899 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,090.4391653.9%494 W · 422 L+39.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x418c…b7dabacked Golden Knights55c1,985$1,092 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,091.75742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x360d…8022backed Golden Knights55c1,985$1,092 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,091.751127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.5wins-0.23per pick50cpaid-51.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfc29…7950backed Utah45c1,985$893 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,091.75850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60d7…fedfbacked Utah45c1,985$893 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,091.75862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+18.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ae2…b660backed Golden Knights55c1,980$1,089 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,089825%2 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-41.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1550…311dbacked Golden Knights55c1,980$1,089 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,089837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-26.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5ef7…d6abbacked Utah45c1,980$891 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,089837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-21.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc038…341abacked Utah45c1,980$891 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,089650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x833b…3cb5backed Utah45c1,975$889 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,086.25742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-11.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf121…f626backed Golden Knights55c1,975$1,086 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,086.251338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-20.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x86df…b453backed Utah45c1,975$889 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,086.25862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+18.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5da1…f817backed Golden Knights55c1,975$1,086 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,086.25933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-31.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6680…f4dcbacked Utah45c1,975$889 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,086.25850%4 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x71ec…5b1dbacked Golden Knights55c1,975$1,086 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,086.25862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+18.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xae3e…2344backed Utah45c1,970$887 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,083.5540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ae6…145dbacked Golden Knights55c1,970$1,084 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,083.5825%2 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-52.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x99ad…ce7cbacked Utah45c1,970$887 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,083.5757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+16.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x591e…d436backed Golden Knights55c1,970$1,084 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,083.51030%3 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick48cpaid-39.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc77d…e411backed Golden Knights55c1,965$1,081 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,080.75933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-29.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c74…dca7backed Golden Knights55c1,965$1,081 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,080.751040%4 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-19.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0315…fcf9backed Utah45c1,965$884 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,080.75650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+13.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0619…0acabacked Utah45c1,965$884 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,080.75757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf832…fe1ebacked Golden Knights55c1,955$1,075 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,075.251241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-14.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a00…b5d1backed Utah45c1,955$880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,075.25933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-24.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf5d…a45dbacked Utah45c1,940$873 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,067785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.6wins+0.37per pick49cpaid+75.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x64ae…fa4fbacked Utah45c1,940$873 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,067785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.6wins+0.37per pick48cpaid+75.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x139e…b1abbacked Utah45c1,940$873 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,067933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-35.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf6a1…85a2backed Golden Knights55c1,940$1,067 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,067850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae2b…8016backed Utah45c1,940$873 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,067850%4 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e56…9a66backed Utah45c1,940$873 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,067850%4 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9729…99a8backed Golden Knights55c1,940$1,067 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0671030%3 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.19per pick49cpaid-39.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9d1e…c94bbacked Golden Knights55c1,940$1,067 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,067837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-25.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1bf4…938bbacked Utah45c1,940$873 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0677100%7 W · 0 L+3.4wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+99.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x7755…5a74backed Golden Knights55c1,940$1,067 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,067944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7fce…9bd4backed Golden Knights55c1,940$1,067 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,067966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+26.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xabec…de15backed Golden Knights55c1,940$1,067 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,067728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.22per pick50cpaid-44.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9041…e4b2backed Utah45c1,935$871 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,064.25850%4 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28a2…2a0fbacked Utah45c1,935$871 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,064.25850%4 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67de…2131backed Utah45c1,935$871 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,064.25850%4 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac0b…5553backed Utah45c1,935$871 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,064.251040%4 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-21.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0033…74d4backed Utah45c1,935$871 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,064.25683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.35per pick49cpaid+68.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6a12…c85dbacked Golden Knights55c1,935$1,064 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,064.25955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x288f…01a5backed Golden Knights55c1,935$1,064 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,064.25742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6059…3aacbacked Golden Knights55c1,935$1,064 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,064.25825%2 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-57.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x44cd…7476backed Golden Knights55c1,935$1,064 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,064.251040%4 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-19.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e08…4f63backed Golden Knights55c1,935$1,064 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,064.25757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+15.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5522…86e5backed Golden Knights55c1,930$1,062 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,061.5837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick52cpaid-28.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4417…7a3ebacked Golden Knights55c1,930$1,062 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,061.5944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8f4…bc87backed Utah45c1,930$869 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,061.5837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f7e…6222backed Golden Knights55c1,930$1,062 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,061.5944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f29…fb40backed Golden Knights55c1,930$1,062 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,061.51030%3 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-34.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x03f9…cd36backed Utah45c1,930$869 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,061.5955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+13.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.