Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Indiana Hoosiers (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39643d2e2fdc18330d11db3337fe14641e6a2924b8ba9fcbbff5af92a09c4eb1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Wisconsin Badgersof Indiana Hoosiers, Wisconsin Badgers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,799
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,546
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,799 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa4a…0502backed Wisconsin Badgers | 54c | 1,241$669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.81 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed Indiana Hoosiers | 51c | 989.69$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Indiana Hoosiers | 45c | 910.06$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.03 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9764…c40cbacked Wisconsin Badgers | 55c | 649.53$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.53 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Indiana Hoosiers | 46c | 605.82$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.97 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Wisconsin Badgers | 26c | 368$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.32 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7669…f58cbacked Wisconsin Badgers | 26c | 311$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.14 | 153 | 56.2%86 W · 67 L | +14.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Wisconsin Badgers | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 1,070 | 46.9%502 W · 568 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Indiana Hoosiers | 47c | 105.83$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.74 | 682 | 54.3%370 W · 312 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Wisconsin Badgers | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.14 | 2,254 | 42.2%951 W · 1,303 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2c…dac5backed Indiana Hoosiers | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…fa73backed Wisconsin Badgers | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.03 | 383 | 51.7%198 W · 185 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26b9…9ab5backed Wisconsin Badgers | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Indiana Hoosiers | 49c | 75$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 998 | 48.4%483 W · 515 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed Indiana Hoosiers | 47c | 70$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 383 | 45.4%174 W · 209 L | -18.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Indiana Hoosiers | 48c | 69.26$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.18 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e07…b908backed Indiana Hoosiers | 49c | 61.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Wisconsin Badgers | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 627 | 53%332 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfb…6dc1backed Indiana Hoosiers | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.86 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 67cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc3a…e1f0backed Wisconsin Badgers | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 268 | 48.1%129 W · 139 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x711a…9240backed Wisconsin Badgers | 51c | 44.47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.01 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Indiana Hoosiers | 46c | 41.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 624 | 51.1%319 W · 305 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9487…54bbbacked Indiana Hoosiers | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 362 | 48.6%176 W · 186 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Wisconsin Badgers | 52c | 31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Wisconsin Badgers | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 1,985 | 64.1%1,273 W · 712 L | +144.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Indiana Hoosiers (-4.5)this page
- Spread: Indiana Hoosiers (-3.5)Wisconsin Badgers won
- Wisconsin Badgers vs. Indiana HoosiersIndiana Hoosiers won
- Wisconsin Badgers vs. Indiana Hoosiers: O/U 155.5Under won
- Wisconsin Badgers vs. Indiana Hoosiers: O/U 156.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.