Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on August 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x396a539a1c0d6c21c9197ba0513e2db22727c45eaf492927c29231f8b3e95d0d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,622
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,392
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,622 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 35c | 859.76$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.99 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5500…b4f6backed Yes | 28c | 712.2$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.36 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 71c | 553$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.13 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 25c | 378.88$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.11 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 70c | 315.01$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.1 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 59c | 269.02$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.15 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 39c | 210.66$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.77 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 41c | 193.58$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.22 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 70c | 172.18$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.26 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8116…465dbacked Yes | 29c | 167.47$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.82 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12f5…5ac4backed Yes | 30c | 166.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 28c | 164.37$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.53 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 71c | 144$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.12 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 64c | 121.11$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.75 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 11c | 100.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 75c | 90.32$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.58 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 72.23$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.49 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 68c | 68.64$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.81 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 53c | 68$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.04 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 59c | 67.85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 33c | 62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 37c | 61.54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 64c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 61c | 54.26$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.16 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 60c | 49.94$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.94 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 40c | 49.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…547dbacked Yes | 42c | 49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 173 | 52%90 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 42c | 47.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.99 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 56c | 46.88$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.75 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 74c | 45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 71c | 43$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 30c | 42.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 65c | 38.34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.55 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 27c | 36.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe419…8aedbacked No | 62c | 36.28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -5.5wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 59c | 33.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 69c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 37c | 30.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 75c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 258 | 77.5%200 W · 58 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8177…e5d4backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 89 | 76.4%68 W · 21 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 70c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 71c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 37c | 28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 63c | 27.63$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x914d…dd11backed Yes | 43c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0d…849cbacked No | 62c | 25.81$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 69c | 23.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 70c | 16.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 280 | 68.6%192 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6199…ece4backed No | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.71 | 35 | 82.9%29 W · 6 L | +4.4wins | +0.13per pick | 70cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on August 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on August 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on August 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.