Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on August 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x40da234a492b11d51c6eac8032c53d5183bab1c9781a3604b63dd6ac3d219bd1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,490
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,652
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,490 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 33c | 1,927$633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$632.81 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 67c | 506.89$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.67 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 33c | 436.39$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.74 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 67c | 329$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.57 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 33c | 254.15$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.98 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1981…7e5ebacked No | 66c | 226.57$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.03 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +100.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 68c | 221$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.72 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…9288backed No | 70c | 211.68$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.66 | 172 | 62.2%107 W · 65 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 65c | 162.09$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.78 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed No | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 64c | 127.54$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.07 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 66c | 115$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 38c | 78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe419…8aedbacked Yes | 20c | 73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -5.5wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 68c | 67.63$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.68 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 35c | 65.72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 32c | 63.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 60c | 57.48$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 72c | 54.26$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 19c | 54.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 65c | 50.64$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.78 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07b6…0ab8backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 136 | 36%49 W · 87 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 28c | 48.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 30c | 48.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 37c | 48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 63c | 44$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.19 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 64c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 59c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb5…6210backed Yes | 36c | 31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 22.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 71c | 22.16$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3642…5db2backed No | 62c | 20.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05f7…22bcbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 131 | 67.2%88 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 159 | 61.6%98 W · 61 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0aa…3259backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb31a…8817backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 182 | 54.4%99 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 67c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 69c | 17.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 280 | 68.6%192 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 69c | 17.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 76c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.13 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on August 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on August 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on August 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.