Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x399e2436917d13443702c2e8b83dec5dc0b66b94d9d2eee4ac16d29dd33e6b65
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,219
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,678
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,219 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0c6b…210ebacked Yes | 15c | 835.36$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.05 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 13c | 783.82$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.78 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 16c | 698.34$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.11 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 15c | 565.95$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.42 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…a110backed Yes | 6c | 418.04$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 4c | 415.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 9c | 399.27$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.22 | 161 | 26.1%42 W · 119 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 9c | 394.35$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.38 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 13c | 346.46$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.55 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b1…ab05backed Yes | 16c | 307.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +75%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc4…c720backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 17c | 258$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.24 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 79c | 253.1$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.1 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb1…4897backed Yes | 12c | 221.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 15c | 214.23$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.32 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 15c | 209.46$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.42 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb99b…b581backed No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 11c | 198.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 19c | 151.1$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 12c | 149.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 12c | 147.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9dca…ebaabacked No | 77c | 130.3$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.3 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 12c | 119.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd6…1733backed Yes | 15c | 118.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07cc…c67abacked Yes | 20c | 113.34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 19c | 111.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef6…92e4backed Yes | 21c | 108.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64a0…f6edbacked Yes | 23c | 99.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 14c | 99.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 77c | 98.29$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.61 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…443bbacked Yes | 23c | 96.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 16c | 90.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a60…be51backed Yes | 16c | 81.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f29…ac2cbacked No | 73c | 68.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf834…8a5fbacked Yes | 25c | 64.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 19c | 63.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…dbaabacked Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 113 | 30.1%34 W · 79 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5953…192fbacked No | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec1…a105backed No | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 24c | 47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x118b…38c8backed Yes | 31c | 42.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 85 | 42.4%36 W · 49 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed No | 68c | 42.48$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0732…4098backed Yes | 30c | 41.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 26c | 41.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032f…057ebacked Yes | 25c | 39.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 79c | 39.85$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 76c | 32.93$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 74c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 78c | 24.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…b1f2backed No | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 79c | 21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 75c | 18.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 67c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on August 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.