Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on August 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c7b370b814d034bccc07e1c787757910db81719cc799e493cb125dd310d4c94
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,208
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,379
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,208 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 63c | 1,344$842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.65 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 30c | 1,305$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.46 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 56c | 990.98$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.6 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 19c | 842.03$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.92 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…b5ddbacked Yes | 44c | 826.86$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.05 | 107 | 31.8%34 W · 73 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…509abacked Yes | 2c | 688.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…a110backed Yes | 28c | 564.11$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.42 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes | 40c | 546.54$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.9 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 11c | 461.75$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.33 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb1…4897backed Yes | 39c | 443.98$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.26 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c7…d291backed Yes | 31c | 299.98$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.99 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 41c | 291.2$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.16 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 26c | 282.17$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.97 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6b…210ebacked Yes | 36c | 267.93$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.15 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24d…947abacked Yes | 40c | 250.17$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe19…1199backed Yes | 20c | 248.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.18per pick | 41cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x63b0…4cf2backed No | 74c | 229.21$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.89 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 64c | 225.35$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.31 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 77c | 217$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.16 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdff5…7bd9backed No | 40c | 192.04$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.39 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9c…079dbacked Yes | 45c | 177.65$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.93 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef6…92e4backed No | 73c | 165.03$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.06 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 19c | 159.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.49 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83dd…1517backed No | 64c | 157.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.21 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes | 67c | 149$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.77 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | -14.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x77fe…835dbacked Yes | 44c | 138.82$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.08 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 67c | 135.34$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.11 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 58c | 126.4$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.97 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec3…a081backed Yes | 26c | 125$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.96 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e70…bb75backed Yes | 47c | 122.54$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a60…be51backed No | 59c | 121.4$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.2 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 44c | 107.33$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.85 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 60c | 104.7$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.88 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e8…a5f9backed Yes | 39c | 102.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0358…95a4backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64a0…f6edbacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee1…3603backed No | 58c | 99.9$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.33 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 42c | 95.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 63c | 93.23$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.62 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed No | 60c | 92$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 54c | 91.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.53 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f3…883cbacked Yes | 57c | 88.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc18…f73cbacked Yes | 19c | 83.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e86…4c0fbacked Yes | 22c | 82.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 111 | 27%30 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Yes | 41c | 80.57$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.84 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 45c | 80$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0732…4098backed Yes | 14c | 78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed No | 62c | 77.43$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.44 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 37c | 76.79$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.55 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 74c | 72.71$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.68 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebe…a64dbacked Yes | 26c | 69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 103 | 25.2%26 W · 77 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 67c | 67.04$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.04 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 62c | 63.38$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.32 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed No | 68c | 62.93$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 57c | 61.82$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.37 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2139…4ca8backed Yes | 31c | 61.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13eb…e57ebacked Yes | 25c | 60.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 116 | 24.1%28 W · 88 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…33abbacked Yes | 18c | 57.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x032f…057ebacked No | 65c | 55.01$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.02 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 40c | 54.65$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.67 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcaad…255cbacked Yes | 37c | 54.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.23per pick | 46cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6568…cd3ebacked Yes | 28c | 53.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 79c | 53.52$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 35c | 51.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 66c | 51.1$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0e…c7a6backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc40…c5bbbacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 40c | 49.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 36c | 48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…eb6ebacked Yes | 36c | 45.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 37c | 42.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 176 | 35.2%62 W · 114 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed No | 50c | 42.6$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.16 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf4…f4c3backed Yes | 47c | 42.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 116 | 26.7%31 W · 85 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d8a…8b1cbacked Yes | 34c | 41.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbab…9c6dbacked Yes | 27c | 41.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed No | 62c | 40.59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0db9…a4a8backed Yes | 43c | 40.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -16.6wins | -0.29per pick | 61cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 27-0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…bb39backed Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 105 | 54.3%57 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d1…6c34backed No | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 34cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6683…c239backed Yes | 68c | 39.77$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57f0…f45bbacked No | 70c | 38.81$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 39c | 38.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8c…f777backed No | 71c | 38.03$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 35c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 60c | 34.31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6906…f45ebacked No | 65c | 30.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.14per pick | 60cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 63c | 29.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 45c | 29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 50c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 61c | 28.59$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 39c | 28.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ce…4bc5backed Yes | 37c | 28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e3…5897backed Yes | 37c | 27.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | -20.8wins | -0.25per pick | 56cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -34.5wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 78c | 24.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 59c | 24.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on August 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on August 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.