Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb069344d2a21c000466cfda2743f2e069611705777d6a9212cc7cedbdc082f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,547
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,870
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,547 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 126 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe34d…41f0backed No | 54c | 1,981$1,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,069.91 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 45c | 1,435$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.81 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 18c | 1,334$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.29 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…b5ddbacked Yes | 66c | 1,208$798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410 | 107 | 31.8%34 W · 73 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed No | 23c | 1,019$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.69 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 9c | 653.68$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.76 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c7…d291backed Yes | 58c | 627.14$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.67 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…a110backed Yes | 44c | 563.76$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.04 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa16…b066backed No | 59c | 559.96$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.57 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…509abacked No | 3c | 538.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd195…7b7cbacked Yes | 47c | 519.7$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.49 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 59c | 506.57$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.6 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked No | 54c | 484.94$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8130…5a50backed No | 33c | 482.51$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.73 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 53c | 480.24$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.43 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 52c | 439.94$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.97 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed No | 42c | 402$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.44 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 42c | 399.99$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6b…210ebacked Yes | 47c | 385.19$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.72 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 14c | 356.94$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.46 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…875abacked No | 55c | 351.16$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.65 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 11c | 331.7$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.69 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 13c | 302$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 49c | 293.99$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.26 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 43c | 264.58$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.58 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 46c | 251.01$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.89 | 161 | 26.1%42 W · 119 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 42c | 248.5$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.55 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 38c | 242.33$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.24 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 64c | 237.94$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.9 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e8…a5f9backed No | 32c | 236.24$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.95 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc24d…947abacked Yes | 46c | 219.62$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.62 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83dd…1517backed Yes | 45c | 195.56$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.56 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 45c | 193.41$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.51 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe19…1199backed No | 61c | 163.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.18per pick | 41cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc40…c5bbbacked Yes | 75c | 150$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dca…ebaabacked No | 68c | 146.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07cc…c67abacked Yes | 51c | 138.32$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.11 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 49c | 124.87$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.12 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 33c | 123.17$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.06 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f4…c6eebacked No | 10c | 119.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 108 | 47.2%51 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 28c | 114.16$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.31 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 47c | 110.45$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.8 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9053…fb1cbacked Yes | 47c | 109.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.8 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0358…95a4backed Yes | 47c | 100.92$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.23 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc18…f73cbacked Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x033d…fc0fbacked No | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +4.8wins | +0.23per pick | 58cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…c7a8backed No | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 54c | 96.51$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 41c | 93.24$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.07 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 40c | 90$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 28c | 89.28$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.28 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 54c | 87.27$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.26 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef6…92e4backed Yes | 42c | 85.15$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.39 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e1…e24abacked Yes | 45c | 82.9$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.25 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 56c | 75.23$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.03 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77fe…835dbacked Yes | 45c | 73.62$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.62 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2028…cacdbacked Yes | 49c | 71.73$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +72.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 32c | 70$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.6 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 56c | 66.65$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.42 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 49c | 66.65$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.98 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57f0…f45bbacked No | 53c | 64.07$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 41c | 60.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.93 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 55c | 59.43$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.59 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…acdfbacked Yes | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9db…2ac6backed Yes | 30c | 54.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.49 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…eb6ebacked Yes | 52c | 54.81$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.44 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf834…8a5fbacked Yes | 45c | 54.42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.01 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed Yes | 41c | 54.04$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.04 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed No | 54c | 54$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 75c | 53.64$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.18 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b8…b102backed Yes | 52c | 52.79$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.32 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb9…ce8fbacked No | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4351…5463backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2139…4ca8backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed No | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dae…a0b1backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee1…3603backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed Yes | 54c | 49.75$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.91 | 260 | 25%65 W · 195 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 37c | 48$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.24 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f23…29b2backed No | 57c | 46.39$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 53c | 43.58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 50c | 42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 57c | 41.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 35c | 41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.61 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad0e…c7e1backed No | 59c | 40.49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d8a…8b1cbacked Yes | 52c | 40.36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 56c | 40.34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…e1b7backed Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2326…24e2backed Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…bb39backed Yes | 48c | 39.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.78 | 105 | 54.3%57 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 43c | 39.06$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.08 | 182 | 47.3%86 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 47c | 39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 56c | 38.61$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf4…f4c3backed Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 116 | 26.7%31 W · 85 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 54c | 36.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x118b…38c8backed Yes | 43c | 34.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.75 | 85 | 42.4%36 W · 49 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on August 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.