Tennis · resolved market
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Lorenzo Gagliardo vs Anton Arzhankin
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39c5d02a39e314236ee0e9a00a9a2c4fa97bf5628e4c64b2adbe74903b7e6ace
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Anton Arzhankinof Lorenzo Gagliardo, Anton Arzhankin
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,809
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,557
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,809 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Lorenzo Gagliardo | 45c | 3,312$1,495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,494.66 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Anton Arzhankin | 69c | 1,516$1,046 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.19 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Anton Arzhankin | 48c | 745.36$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.83 | 376 | 45.7%172 W · 204 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Anton Arzhankin | 41c | 491.42$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.99 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f76…dcc9backed Anton Arzhankin | 41c | 391.35$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.9 | 910 | 51%464 W · 446 L | +23.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Lorenzo Gagliardo | 53c | 189.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 580 | 45.9%266 W · 314 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Anton Arzhankin | 56c | 189.38$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 1,142 | 47.3%540 W · 602 L | +65.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Anton Arzhankin | 46c | 187.39$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.7 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd056…f1bebacked Lorenzo Gagliardo | 54c | 181.48$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 643 | 50.2%323 W · 320 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Anton Arzhankin | 47c | 136.23$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.23 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Lorenzo Gagliardo | 39c | 129.83$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.21 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Anton Arzhankin | 47c | 113.5$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.3 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Lorenzo Gagliardo | 54c | 86.29$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.6 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a2…8ff7backed Anton Arzhankin | 46c | 80.72$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.59 | 394 | 43.9%173 W · 221 L | +19.6wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36d8…c7c7backed Lorenzo Gagliardo | 38c | 77$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.26 | 1,228 | 41.1%505 W · 723 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Lorenzo Gagliardo | 36c | 69.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Anton Arzhankin | 42c | 58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.36 | 1,822 | 41%747 W · 1,075 L | -30.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Lorenzo Gagliardo | 31c | 54.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Anton Arzhankin | 64c | 52$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e38…b4cbbacked Anton Arzhankin | 69c | 46$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Anton Arzhankin | 63c | 44$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…0a73backed Lorenzo Gagliardo | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 940 | 58.4%549 W · 391 L | +21.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Anton Arzhankin | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 1,588 | 47%746 W · 842 L | -24.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74f9…6024backed Anton Arzhankin | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 561 | 53.7%301 W · 260 L | +19.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.