CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs WW Team (BO3) - Exort Cataclysm Group B
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39ca9b183ce6c2c6ff58e859c00ef34f7e84561cb9e3643b525792309551787e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- ARCREDof ARCRED, WW Team
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,813
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,714
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,813 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbec7…5977backed ARCRED | 72c | 2,700$1,944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$756 | 576 | 47.6%274 W · 302 L | -25.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92d6…0550backed WW Team | 28c | 2,700$756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$756 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3db4…d69bbacked ARCRED | 50c | 1,800$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900 | 753 | 56.8%428 W · 325 L | +48.1wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked WW Team | 46c | 1,691$779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$779.17 | 3,259 | 50.3%1,639 W · 1,620 L | +98.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc707…55b8backed WW Team | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c64…348fbacked WW Team | 2c | 999.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 2cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked WW Team | 35c | 445.67$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.88 | 7,990 | 50.4%4,029 W · 3,961 L | +180.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked ARCRED | 66c | 382.33$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.25 | 192 | 31.3%60 W · 132 L | -11.2wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90af…ad4abacked WW Team | 45c | 367.73$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.28 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e2e…b5a5backed ARCRED | 55c | 257.73$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.98 | 138 | 47.1%65 W · 73 L | +18.3wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked WW Team | 49c | 202.49$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.02 | 581 | 49.2%286 W · 295 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49a1…41cbbacked ARCRED | 77c | 163.38$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.38 | 87 | 70.1%61 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef59…f4debacked ARCRED | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x285a…0126backed ARCRED | 67c | 115.3$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 138 | 57.2%79 W · 59 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed WW Team | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,046 | 45%471 W · 575 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7b…0cc9backed WW Team | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked ARCRED | 62c | 99.99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.57 | 1,051 | 57.2%601 W · 450 L | +17.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed ARCRED | 56c | 87.89$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.9 | 6,501 | 42.9%2,791 W · 3,710 L | -79.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed WW Team | 41c | 57.32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 1,378 | 45.2%623 W · 755 L | +17.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea37…94f3backed ARCRED | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 329 | 51.7%170 W · 159 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…8be8backed WW Team | 41c | 37.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 410 | 54.6%224 W · 186 L | +29.4wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed ARCRED | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 388 | 44.6%173 W · 215 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked WW Team | 41c | 29.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 596 | 47.3%282 W · 314 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe291…c2c9backed ARCRED | 66c | 27.22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 67 | 65.7%44 W · 23 L | +6.8wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +16%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked WW Team | 50c | 23.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 5,580 | 47.2%2,632 W · 2,948 L | +47.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5931…8ecbbacked ARCRED | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5151…4e57backed ARCRED | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 36 | 86.1%31 W · 5 L | +4.7wins | +0.13per pick | 73cpaid | +17%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.