Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will NK Celje win on 2026-02-19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39eb3a45a0d119660eeecb39e1de5e30d6ea82cbbc2d87c95c54931c3e049081
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,187
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,361
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,187 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 47c | 2,125$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.48 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…0840backed Yes | 53c | 1,657$876 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780.88 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +3.2wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 29c | 710.64$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.28 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…be19backed Yes | 49c | 600$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.06 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 47c | 514.06$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.27 | 251 | 57%143 W · 108 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe977…700fbacked No | 3c | 503.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +4.3wins | +0.21per pick | 17cpaid | +114.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb648…c2ddbacked Yes | 73c | 499.59$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.04 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +74.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 50c | 361.95$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.25 | 123 | 45.5%56 W · 67 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 18c | 324.59$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.22 | 449 | 52.6%236 W · 213 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Yes | 53c | 323.13$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.05 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9030…4a23backed No | 47c | 199.98$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.99 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked No | 50c | 160$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 100 | 61%61 W · 39 L | +8.3wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 21c | 153.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.79 | 769 | 41.9%322 W · 447 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…f836backed Yes | 52c | 150$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11f0…890dbacked Yes | 52c | 150$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 18c | 143.06$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.91 | 49 | 14.3%7 W · 42 L | -8.3wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed No | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 130 | 46.9%61 W · 69 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 20c | 101.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd257…d215backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 99 | 20.2%20 W · 79 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked No | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 48c | 76$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.48 | 318 | 49.4%157 W · 161 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Yes | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed No | 53c | 69.67$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.82 | 179 | 41.9%75 W · 104 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 21c | 68.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.62 | 160 | 13.1%21 W · 139 L | -18.8wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -47%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 72c | 63.59$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.68 | 234 | 61.5%144 W · 90 L | +26.7wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8d…e22dbacked Yes | 52c | 62.37$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.83 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…2163backed Yes | 53c | 61.32$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 100 | 35%35 W · 65 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99fc…9e5fbacked Yes | 43c | 41.95$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.95 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 71c | 41.21$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 741 | 55.9%414 W · 327 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x355c…81c5backed Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.26per pick | 49cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Yes | 57c | 32.4$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Yes | 52c | 31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.81 | 159 | 49.1%78 W · 81 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed No | 77c | 25.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 51c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 78 | 59%46 W · 32 L | +7.5wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 65c | 20.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 276 | 44.9%124 W · 152 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa556…e483backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NK Celje win on 2026-02-19?this page
- Will FC Drita vs. NK Celje end in a draw?No won
- Will FC Drita win on 2026-02-19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.