Serie A · resolved market
Will US Lecce win on 2026-03-22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39ed11f4ba184218079356a4fb807efe84c3b472b3daea9a2a01eddc7efca14e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $125,454
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $125,454 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x78f9…25cfbacked Yes | 0c | 23,349$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -18%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd36…a8acbacked Yes | 11c | 18,841$2,073 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,072.56 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 11c | 6,288$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$696.54 | 969 | 42.3%410 W · 559 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5e…e7dbbacked Yes | 11c | 6,204$682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$682.48 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed Yes | 11c | 5,153$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.72 | 89 | 41.6%37 W · 52 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd09…05b2backed Yes | 11c | 3,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…cea5backed Yes | 1c | 2,042$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0c…04b6backed Yes | 2c | 1,078$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa163…db4cbacked Yes | 10c | 996.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.69 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2db1…45e5backed Yes | 12c | 996.3$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.56 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02d4…d26cbacked Yes | 13c | 995.91$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.45 | 129 | 20.2%26 W · 103 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c5…50cdbacked Yes | 11c | 984.07$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.25 | 57 | 28.1%16 W · 41 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 11c | 482.12$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.61 | 932 | 52%485 W · 447 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b7c…3c87backed Yes | 12c | 461.36$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.36 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb82b…fc60backed Yes | 12c | 453.02$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.36 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x447d…bd4abacked Yes | 11c | 452.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.83 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -34%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab2…b7debacked Yes | 12c | 415.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0004…80c7backed Yes | 14c | 355.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…5544backed Yes | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbea4…be87backed Yes | 12c | 238.12$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a47…76dcbacked Yes | 13c | 229.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.88 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1650…42f6backed Yes | 12c | 182.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7c…82f2backed Yes | 12c | 124.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22af…399abacked Yes | 12c | 120.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0a…7858backed Yes | 11c | 99.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a8…a0f5backed Yes | 12c | 99.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14ce…a3f8backed Yes | 12c | 92.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will US Lecce win on 2026-03-22?this page
- Will AS Roma vs. US Lecce end in a draw?No won
- Will AS Roma win on 2026-03-22?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.