Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on July 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39ef08df1138365c6a61c0ae07c56f35101b629a6c2bfea2b1933e613bd8a8db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,934
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,456
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,934 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1cd2…c304backed Yes | 7c | 220.56$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.12 | 160 | 38.8%62 W · 98 L | +18.0wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +123.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 74c | 191$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.77 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 11c | 165.68$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.35 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 30c | 132.69$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.36 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 29c | 129.55$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.25 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 51c | 114.43$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.49 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 20c | 107.96$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.31 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 31c | 104.27$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 100.6$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.2 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd503…325fbacked Yes | 32c | 90.45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 62c | 89.25$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.36 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 52c | 87.74$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.39 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 30c | 83.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.61 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec3d…0a55backed Yes | 33c | 75.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.76 | 144 | 34%49 W · 95 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 32c | 72.56$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.32 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 77c | 72$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.43 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 31c | 66.65$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.14 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 30c | 66.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.6 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 49c | 63.38$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.32 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 27c | 62.79$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.69 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 31c | 62.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.98 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 24c | 60.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.73 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 23c | 48.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.19 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 32c | 47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.96 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 42c | 45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed No | 73c | 43.87$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.94 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 214 | 72%154 W · 60 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 66c | 39.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 45c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc41d…c51dbacked Yes | 40c | 30.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.61 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | +14.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 70c | 30.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 71c | 29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 80c | 27.59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x431a…88a2backed No | 74c | 25.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 58 | 84.5%49 W · 9 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 76cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 68c | 24.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ece…1949backed No | 68c | 22.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 173 | 61.8%107 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3925…42fcbacked No | 79c | 22.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 63 | 84.1%53 W · 10 L | +8.4wins | +0.13per pick | 71cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 70c | 21.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked No | 74c | 21.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 78c | 19.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 79c | 15.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on July 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 71°F or below on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on July 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.