Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on July 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4dd5fc0d9cc08b627ceffd1e65b336887899c1009e1732d6fc1cfce06aaaa789
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,994
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,739
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,994 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 32c | 1,025$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.23 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 12c | 498.1$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.67 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf33c…488cbacked Yes | 32c | 312.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 15c | 283.46$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.79 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 69c | 233.75$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.87 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 66c | 193.11$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.74 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa144…963bbacked Yes | 35c | 183.41$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.64 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 36cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed No | 69c | 179.46$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.72 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 67c | 167.11$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.3 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked Yes | 33c | 153.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.38 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 65c | 143$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.82 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 140.49$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.04 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 69c | 125$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.75 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 31c | 121.78$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.75 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 95.59$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.65 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 66c | 94.9$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.26 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 22c | 87.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 30c | 86.38$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.93 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 16c | 84.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 25c | 81.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 42c | 80.82$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.62 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd44d…2305backed Yes | 32c | 74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 72 | 13.9%10 W · 62 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x135f…79bcbacked Yes | 21c | 73.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +77.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 66c | 72$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked No | 70c | 68.54$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 67c | 66.81$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 68c | 66.56$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.51 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 39c | 58.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 75c | 54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…a64abacked No | 77c | 52.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 188 | 62.8%118 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 56c | 50.58$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.06 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc9…c353backed Yes | 23c | 49.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 34c | 48.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.67 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 32c | 46.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.87 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 34c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 40c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 66c | 43.88$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 66c | 43.76$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 51c | 41.65$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.43 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…e66dbacked No | 66c | 38.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -6.8wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe89e…7219backed No | 80c | 38.47$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 78 | 76.9%60 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 59c | 36.85$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.16 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked No | 56c | 36.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.27 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 43c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 77c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 66c | 33.1$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe37a…844dbacked No | 77c | 32.42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 128 | 76.6%98 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadd7…8622backed No | 68c | 32.03$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 177 | 66.7%118 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 68c | 30.75$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9dd…b525backed No | 65c | 29.83$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 41c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 78c | 25.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 61c | 22.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf40c…b7ccbacked No | 58c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 54c | 20.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25f0…7d92backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 74c | 19.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 73c | 16.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 65c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed No | 68c | 15.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 76 | 65.8%50 W · 26 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on July 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 71°F or below on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on July 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on July 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.