Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on July 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d4f14e59e1ffd92a0d07eae5274ace30ca1cc2e27f1c93be0d2a4365ddfddb8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,150
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,255
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,150 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e61…e2bebacked Yes | 39c | 984.84$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.94 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 27c | 743.46$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.58 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 3c | 499.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 64c | 335.43$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.37 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 73c | 300$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed Yes | 27c | 235.4$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.47 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 40c | 230.8$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.52 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 65c | 222.23$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.91 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 80c | 191$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.84 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 40c | 188$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.2 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 66c | 186.31$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.24 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 30c | 164.89$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.47 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 24c | 159.23$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.78 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 27c | 156.6$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 32c | 156$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.44 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked No | 80c | 152.96$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.87 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 45c | 150$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 73c | 150$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 10c | 145$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 42c | 144.38$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.2 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 67c | 104.65$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.65 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 58c | 100.62$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.26 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 28c | 86.44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 67c | 85$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92e3…ab49backed No | 67c | 78.79$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.12 | 71 | 38%27 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…9611backed Yes | 26c | 78.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 63c | 77$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.49 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 24c | 76.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 73c | 76.46$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 63c | 73$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.81 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 76c | 72$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.41 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed No | 72c | 65$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a36…f270backed Yes | 21c | 54.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 24c | 52.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 61c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.75 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 30c | 45.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 70c | 45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 214 | 72%154 W · 60 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 64c | 37.96$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 38c | 37.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadd7…8622backed No | 73c | 35.62$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 177 | 66.7%118 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked No | 74c | 34.66$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 69 | 66.7%46 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 34c | 31.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…ad82backed No | 55c | 30.51$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 75c | 29.62$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 67c | 29.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed No | 69c | 25.27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 168 | 59.5%100 W · 68 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 69c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 77c | 23.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed No | 74c | 20.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 64c | 16.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on July 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 71°F or below on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on July 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on July 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.