NHL · resolved market
KHL: Traktor vs. Severstal Cherepovets
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39f4b12f78bce45119de3bf8e242bc81c6bd9a05695eff55cc430096b6cc4e4c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Traktorof Traktor, Severstal Cherepovets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,622
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,639
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,622 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4343…ac47backed Traktor | 56c | 462.05$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.05 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed Severstal Cherepovets | 46c | 219.65$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 308 | 55.5%171 W · 137 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54a2…5dfebacked Severstal Cherepovets | 49c | 204.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Severstal Cherepovets | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 202 | 45%91 W · 111 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Traktor | 53c | 61.77$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.95 | 865 | 49.1%425 W · 440 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb171…7d2bbacked Traktor | 54c | 58.37$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.85 | 104 | 64.4%67 W · 37 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Traktor | 51c | 47.61$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 831 | 49.5%411 W · 420 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe1…a6ebbacked Traktor | 60c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.95 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x874d…c888backed Severstal Cherepovets | 40c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c0…dac7backed Severstal Cherepovets | 40c | 41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc484…4123backed Traktor | 60c | 41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b1…9b98backed Traktor | 60c | 36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d2…b34bbacked Severstal Cherepovets | 40c | 36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Severstal Cherepovets | 46c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 421 | 44.4%187 W · 234 L | -28.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd83…c0c2backed Traktor | 60c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.