Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39fbff03e93eac1b088a6fadd00e306290f5cc87469bd9a34e92c3a94752b185
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,657
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,217
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,657 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 58c | 1,079$631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.24 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 40c | 584.68$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.06 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 65c | 562.02$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 35c | 553.24$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.45 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 38c | 449$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.23 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 59c | 350$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 58c | 300$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaf…8031backed Yes | 46c | 228.53$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 73c | 179.17$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.41 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 33c | 166$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.98 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a7a…8465backed Yes | 40c | 122.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.52 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 54c | 113$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.11 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 62c | 111.93$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.19 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe387…1eedbacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…7fa2backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 182 | 19.2%35 W · 147 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 51c | 95$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 35c | 93.66$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.78 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 32c | 89.15$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.83 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf48…1751backed Yes | 42c | 80$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f4…c6eebacked Yes | 41c | 80$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 108 | 47.2%51 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 39c | 73.67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.84 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 66c | 69.09$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 60c | 66.55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.35 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25f0…7d92backed Yes | 30c | 66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…3715backed Yes | 38c | 60.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x170d…064cbacked Yes | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x65a5…2aeebacked No | 57c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | -12.5wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 62c | 56.25$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.38 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 40c | 53.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 48.92$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.55 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc057…0c9abacked Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 68 | 20.6%14 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e70…bb75backed Yes | 46c | 48.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 65c | 44.88$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 45c | 44.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b73…02c0backed Yes | 46c | 43.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -4.0wins | -0.20per pick | 55cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 61c | 42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.39 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8c…b29dbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x667c…559cbacked Yes | 39c | 38.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +4.7wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed No | 59c | 38.44$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -34.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 64c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe514…e312backed Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0059…5cd9backed No | 66c | 27.27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 41c | 25.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67a8…7493backed No | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…0d51backed No | 67c | 22.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 142 | 50.7%72 W · 70 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 62c | 20.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…0a3fbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 161 | 48.4%78 W · 83 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…9e1dbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -13.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…42efbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | -13.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb31a…8817backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 182 | 54.4%99 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb8…7809backed No | 63c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 135 | 54.1%73 W · 62 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 58c | 18.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 63c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 65c | 15.36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 21?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on July 21?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 21?Yes won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.