Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will FC Groningen win on 2026-05-02?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a099a40cd69bc114c3f788620018e155ebe498977ca83ce6bc6315672425bc0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,512
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,600
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,512 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x75bd…0288backed Yes | 39c | 1,220$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.77 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x660d…56acbacked Yes | 57c | 670.04$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.92 | 265 | 49.4%131 W · 134 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c5…50cdbacked Yes | 19c | 395.68$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.43 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4789…994abacked Yes | 78c | 267.95$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 43c | 258.53$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.36 | 2,068 | 48.1%995 W · 1,073 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed No | 62c | 250$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95 | 171 | 49.7%85 W · 86 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaec3…22dfbacked Yes | 57c | 250$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.5 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Yes | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 74 | 35.1%26 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 41c | 124.62$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 940 | 43.7%411 W · 529 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd03…df4abacked No | 25c | 119.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.99 | 75 | 29.3%22 W · 53 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 73c | 118.78$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.17 | 1,282 | 50.2%644 W · 638 L | -25.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 21c | 112.95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 583 | 20.1%117 W · 466 L | -37.7wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14c3…0262backed Yes | 20c | 100.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 79 | 26.6%21 W · 58 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd7…d5a3backed No | 74c | 99.56$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.89 | 71 | 62%44 W · 27 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes | 23c | 90.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 328 | 35.4%116 W · 212 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 43c | 85.47$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.57 | 1,222 | 51%623 W · 599 L | -10.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 43c | 83.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.87 | 2,543 | 52.4%1,333 W · 1,210 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked No | 43c | 77.47$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.16 | 343 | 58.9%202 W · 141 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Yes | 18c | 76.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 105 | 24.8%26 W · 79 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Yes | 46c | 66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 105 | 43.8%46 W · 59 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 46c | 65.09$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.42 | 673 | 48.1%324 W · 349 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 43c | 63.75$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.34 | 2,334 | 46.8%1,093 W · 1,241 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Yes | 57c | 61.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 320 | 51.9%166 W · 154 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…a78fbacked Yes | 57c | 61.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 131 | 51.1%67 W · 64 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked No | 43c | 59.98$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.19 | 306 | 46.7%143 W · 163 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked No | 48c | 58.24$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.24 | 256 | 53.1%136 W · 120 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 43c | 52.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.93 | 911 | 48%437 W · 474 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Yes | 56c | 51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.72 | 373 | 41.6%155 W · 218 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Yes | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 536 | 55.2%296 W · 240 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 58c | 48.45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.39 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e3b…380cbacked No | 26c | 47.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.88 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa38e…8917backed No | 26c | 45.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.76 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +6.4wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +283.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 26c | 42.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 109 | 20.2%22 W · 87 L | -7.8wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -38%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed No | 41c | 40.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.12 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | -12.8wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed No | 43c | 38.38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.88 | 383 | 59.3%227 W · 156 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbba9…81ccbacked Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -3.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…95d1backed Yes | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf39…0e83backed Yes | 77c | 27.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x659f…04e4backed No | 43c | 26.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.38 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd45c…bb50backed Yes | 72c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -50%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed No | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 237 | 47.7%113 W · 124 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 212 | 47.2%100 W · 112 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Yes | 41c | 24.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 79 | 22.8%18 W · 61 L | -14.9wins | -0.19per pick | 42cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…2163backed Yes | 57c | 24.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 292 | 44.9%131 W · 161 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed No | 44c | 24.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 273 | 52.7%144 W · 129 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb6…8cdebacked Yes | 77c | 12.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Groningen win on 2026-05-02?this page
- Will FC Groningen vs. SBV Excelsior end in a draw?No won
- Will SBV Excelsior win on 2026-05-02?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.