Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a1a299e79f42fcd32ac436252cf1c2f023c90f003d965938e8d0489f1c4b8ba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,028
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,410
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,028 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf381…40c2backed Yes | 57c | 1,109$628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.61 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 37c | 328.92$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.75 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 31c | 319.03$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.22 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 69c | 291.12$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.67 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 25c | 282.26$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.07 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed Yes | 77c | 196.81$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.77 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 53c | 176.56$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.22 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 27c | 165.05$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.83 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 30c | 156.09$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 32c | 142$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.94 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 35c | 135$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.25 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 57c | 130$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.4 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 45c | 126.82$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.47 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadaa…875abacked No | 14c | 118.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 131 | 34.4%45 W · 86 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 29c | 109.29$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.39 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 39c | 106.64$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.59 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 42c | 100.95$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.23 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 51c | 99.98$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.99 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 63c | 94.2$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.16 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 48c | 90$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.79 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0941…b254backed Yes | 39c | 88.61$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.05 | 119 | 35.3%42 W · 77 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 46c | 87$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.83 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 45c | 82.05$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.95 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 51c | 78.39$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 29c | 78.29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 64c | 76.1$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.05 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff06…c7d5backed No | 70c | 74.61$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.29 | 112 | 58.9%66 W · 46 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 52c | 73.84$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 58c | 69.76$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 72c | 68.19$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.01 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2b…34d7backed Yes | 73c | 65.5$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 47c | 65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed No | 41c | 60.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 78c | 60.26$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 40c | 55.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 41c | 53.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2814…5596backed No | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed No | 34c | 46.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 51c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507c…c876backed Yes | 53c | 44.6$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.79 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 78c | 41.17$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fff…8f49backed No | 42c | 40.51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b3…4d47backed Yes | 49c | 40.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 80c | 39$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 52c | 38.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.52 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8327…577dbacked No | 28c | 36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 55c | 36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 75c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe985…8cc8backed No | 42c | 29.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 83 | 25.3%21 W · 62 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b82…b217backed Yes | 53c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 141 | 34.8%49 W · 92 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05bc…008abacked No | 73c | 26.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e04…3475backed No | 50c | 26.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -4.7wins | -0.20per pick | 64cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x76c7…860ebacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 48c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 63c | 22.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed No | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 49c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.61 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x599f…3317backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 125 | 78.4%98 W · 27 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 75c | 19.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 65c | 18.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7f…7980backed No | 58c | 18.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked No | 64c | 16.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…a773backed No | 76c | 14.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 74°F or higher on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 62-63°F on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.