Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x70a39d1e78f1ed88de77c78bc90bd78a54741785f9694fe65060fabc7b24f21b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,198
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,374
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,198 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf381…40c2backed Yes | 40c | 930.93$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.25 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 16c | 388.28$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.96 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 31c | 387.46$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.27 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 76c | 354.21$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.48 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 77c | 332$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.6 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 23c | 214.9$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.45 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 36c | 157.74$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.53 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 30c | 146.05$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.75 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 25c | 140.66$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.49 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 76c | 139.21$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.46 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 33c | 128.25$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.8 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 32c | 113.96$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.47 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 52c | 93$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.64 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 67c | 87$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.61 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 43c | 84.5$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.22 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed No | 77c | 81.81$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xff06…c7d5backed No | 63c | 81.11$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.01 | 112 | 58.9%66 W · 46 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 61c | 79.4$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.14 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67f4…df0fbacked No | 66c | 76.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.14 | 102 | 65.7%67 W · 35 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 66c | 75$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.81 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 66c | 75$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.58 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 64c | 65.96$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 65c | 63.45$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.22 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 24c | 61.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…3edabacked Yes | 21c | 59.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 35c | 58.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 25c | 56.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 66c | 56.15$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.15 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 76c | 50.5$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 77c | 48.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 66c | 40.7$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 40.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 55c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 31c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 69c | 34.47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 59c | 34.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 35c | 34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 78c | 32.8$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 72c | 31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 63c | 30.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 65c | 29.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 65c | 28.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76c7…860ebacked No | 60c | 21.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed No | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76b3…7d44backed No | 66c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -16.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0e04…3475backed No | 65c | 20.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -4.7wins | -0.20per pick | 64cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked No | 60c | 19.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 66c | 18.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 70c | 17.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca5e…4a1cbacked No | 67c | 15.37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 74°F or higher on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 62-63°F on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.