Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth win on 2026-02-20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a1ed590607e55402bae9e726dc0a47ad6ab8cdcb511515687d74a9aa494090f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,177
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $72,355
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,177 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8731…318dbacked No | 0c | 10,026$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 54c | 7,930$4,321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,609.11 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 24c | 7,556$1,786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,786 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80cf…427dbacked Yes | 29c | 3,540$1,026 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,513.99 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea2b…1fc6backed No | 71c | 2,743$1,948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,947.51 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd6…5f62backed No | 74c | 2,100$1,553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,552.65 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 42c | 1,524$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645.34 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 73c | 1,011$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$734.98 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0c…bcebbacked No | 78c | 910.32$706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$706.08 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a0…92dfbacked Yes | 21c | 690.48$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.48 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85a1…a640backed Yes | 29c | 651.72$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.72 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Yes | 26c | 597.76$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.14 | 64 | 28.1%18 W · 46 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…959bbacked Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…038cbacked No | 72c | 414.76$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 69cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 42c | 400.24$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.71 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 73c | 399.99$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.48 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed No | 16c | 398.5$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.54 | 109 | 43.1%47 W · 62 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 74c | 392.64$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.55 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 25c | 374.02$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.88 | 82 | 24.4%20 W · 62 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c86…15c0backed No | 57c | 263.16$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 176 | 52.3%92 W · 84 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e6…84a8backed No | 42c | 250$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x237e…a5f0backed Yes | 26c | 227.58$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.41 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x819f…70bcbacked Yes | 26c | 193$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.51 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x556c…5b77backed No | 38c | 177.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.76 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed No | 33c | 177.68$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.63 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0674…2034backed Yes | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f97…a9b3backed Yes | 44c | 170.45$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.45 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb0…2ccebacked No | 79c | 144.3$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa69a…3360backed Yes | 22c | 136.36$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.36 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6aa…8882backed Yes | 25c | 120$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 72 | 19.4%14 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe343…5c31backed Yes | 25c | 100.96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.96 | 52 | 15.4%8 W · 44 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d8…19c5backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Yes | 77c | 93.94$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.52 | 86 | 65.1%56 W · 30 L | +9.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf566…bbb9backed No | 74c | 92.96$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.79 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…a4f0backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50f4…b728backed Yes | 33c | 78.28$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.3 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed No | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed No | 39c | 66.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.47 | 149 | 34.9%52 W · 97 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Yes | 23c | 65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.27 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 27c | 54.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.54 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x14c3…0262backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 45 | 24.4%11 W · 34 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d2a…3daebacked Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdea…c050backed Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 56cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 61c | 36.84$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52ca…54f0backed Yes | 28c | 36.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.78 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe579…ba5ebacked Yes | 54c | 32.13$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 24 | 83.3%20 W · 4 L | +5.1wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…a7a8backed Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…8147backed Yes | 43c | 23.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -4.3wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 58c | 23.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 306 | 47.1%144 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f52…43debacked No | 75c | 18.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…8aeabacked No | 72c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth win on 2026-02-20?this page
- Will DSC Arminia Bielefeld win on 2026-02-20?No won
- Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.