Bundesliga · resolved market
Will DSC Arminia Bielefeld win on 2026-02-20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xee81bb4e649e16c6dfbb6f4abb250e1d6e7cdce24348ed306b57d9c28ed40530
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,310
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,169
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,310 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 9c | 5,387$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.09 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f3…d99cbacked Yes | 52c | 3,779$1,973 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,973.5 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +4.7wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7197…14c8backed Yes | 44c | 2,270$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998.79 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 55c | 1,500$825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675 | 126 | 51.6%65 W · 61 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 48c | 1,407$676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$731.04 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 50c | 1,148$571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.67 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e6…84a8backed Yes | 42c | 932.47$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.61 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 7c | 899.87$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.01 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5e…4e1abacked Yes | 45c | 802.56$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 57c | 800$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.26 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 28c | 771.51$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.4 | 82 | 24.4%20 W · 62 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e85…443ebacked No | 47c | 499.99$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 43c | 495.7$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.54 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 26c | 479.12$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.27 | 245 | 41.6%102 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea2b…1fc6backed No | 56c | 445.14$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.86 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked No | 61c | 305$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.9 | 117 | 62.4%73 W · 44 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 56c | 252.78$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.41 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Yes | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 158 | 29.1%46 W · 112 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3036…15c2backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd754…7857backed No | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.25per pick | 46cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4300…5c69backed Yes | 50c | 197.39$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.7 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | -5.4wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c86…15c0backed Yes | 52c | 193.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 176 | 52.3%92 W · 84 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed No | 47c | 146.12$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.44 | 311 | 45%140 W · 171 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked No | 71c | 128.81$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.62 | 112 | 52.7%59 W · 53 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes | 50c | 116.67$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 204 | 36.3%74 W · 130 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Yes | 45c | 116.21$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.46 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +27%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a3…bce8backed Yes | 46c | 107.51$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.45 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d8…19c5backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5944…bd5bbacked Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e64…7308backed No | 55c | 95.84$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.43 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64ff…8f70backed Yes | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf33…ab3ebacked Yes | 43c | 93.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x819f…70bcbacked Yes | 48c | 82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.56 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x090b…2f01backed Yes | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23de…05c1backed Yes | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ea…c293backed No | 72c | 79.49$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.87 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 69c | 74.49$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.07 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Yes | 25c | 71.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…2163backed Yes | 46c | 69.57$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 25c | 65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe76c…1c3cbacked Yes | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 47c | 55.36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.17 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50f4…b728backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed No | 77c | 49.12$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x501d…52e2backed Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0c…9db8backed No | 51c | 44.04$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.36 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3a46…ba91backed Yes | 50c | 43.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 88 | 58%51 W · 37 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd866…5056backed Yes | 46c | 43.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98c5…dd3bbacked Yes | 50c | 42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a2d7backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 205 | 40%82 W · 123 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa469…4985backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b9…948abacked Yes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -5.4wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 45c | 36.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 288 | 22.6%65 W · 223 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 62c | 30.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b99…adb9backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2800…c9d2backed No | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a47…cfbbbacked Yes | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 50c | 28.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed No | 56c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed No | 79c | 26.8$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 109 | 43.1%47 W · 62 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95dc…4b45backed No | 55c | 24.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6206…94d5backed No | 48c | 23.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 55c | 20.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 64 | 70.3%45 W · 19 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe779…3f6abacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef80…6aa3backed No | 50c | 19.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +84%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will DSC Arminia Bielefeld win on 2026-02-20?this page
- Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld end in a draw?No won
- Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth win on 2026-02-20?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.