Champions League · resolved market
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 1 FC Bayern München?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a245c85936ca2a788cb40bae49418cc05c2f337cc3a97d8d9a765a90b9b5332
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,518
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,295
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,518 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3923…41b4backed Yes | 10c | 1,300$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Yes | 11c | 1,032$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf536…e40cbacked Yes | 10c | 996.17$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8b…d11abacked Yes | 10c | 473$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.3 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf93…8458backed Yes | 13c | 384.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2f…febcbacked Yes | 10c | 320$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb5…5d24backed Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf86d…f572backed Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ac6…ca2dbacked Yes | 10c | 283.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 14cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8b…517cbacked Yes | 10c | 283.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ea…0d2abacked Yes | 10c | 275.56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d36…8f64backed Yes | 10c | 240$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa504…c842backed Yes | 13c | 230.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Yes | 10c | 220$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 206 | 39.3%81 W · 125 L | +25.6wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b1…242fbacked Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 96 | 44.8%43 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3e…3918backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa92…15f4backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a07…55d4backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 10cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…dd99backed Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c2a…f038backed Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8392…e3a2backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 97 | 39.2%38 W · 59 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 10c | 141.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -58%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71af…e7c9backed Yes | 11c | 132.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9de…96d8backed Yes | 10c | 127.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x208a…ab0fbacked Yes | 12c | 126.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c5e…fa88backed Yes | 10c | 110$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb1…b5efbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac7e…4768backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd360…7bf6backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3119…2105backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e6c…2200backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x619e…0149backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbadb…220ebacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ee…6cf2backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe6…a614backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf64c…e897backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.18per pick | 24cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab6b…521bbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 1 FC Bayern München?this page
- Exact Score: Any Other Score?No won
- Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 0 - 0 FC Bayern München?No won
- Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 0 FC Bayern München?No won
- Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 1 FC Bayern München?No won
- Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 0 FC Bayern München?No won
- Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 2 FC Bayern München?No won
- Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 0 FC Bayern München?No won
- Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 1 FC Bayern München?No won
- Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 2 FC Bayern München?No won
- Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 3 FC Bayern München?No won
- Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 4 - 1 FC Bayern München?No won
- Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 4 - 2 FC Bayern München?No won
- Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 4 - 3 FC Bayern München?No won
- Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 5 - 2 FC Bayern München?No won
- Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 5 - 3 FC Bayern München?No won
- Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 5 - 4 FC Bayern München?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.