MLB · resolved market
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a38da126885508c0a139df908cfe35dd72157e322fc13876e091b306fadcb8c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Los Angeles Angelsof Houston Astros, Los Angeles Angels
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $71,639
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $71,981
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,639 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Houston Astros | 44c | 70,000$30,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,799.84 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 18,138$10,157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,980.72 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 6,970$3,903 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,066.64 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 6,807$3,812 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,995.14 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 6,062$3,394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,668.07 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 3,960$2,218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,742.4 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 3,316$1,857 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,458.99 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 3,316$1,857 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,458.99 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 3,056$1,711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,344.64 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 2,720$1,523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,196.81 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…96f8backed Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 1,527$855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$671.79 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec95…a2dcbacked Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 1,071$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.43 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 1,024$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.56 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 874$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.56 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 870.55$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.04 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 869.86$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.74 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 684.2$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.05 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb88a…f6adbacked Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 600$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264 | 287 | 53.3%153 W · 134 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Houston Astros | 44c | 578.03$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.33 | 856 | 45.3%388 W · 468 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 545.22$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.9 | 562 | 53.2%299 W · 263 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d23…251cbacked Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 521.91$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.64 | 117 | 51.3%60 W · 57 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 500$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 500$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 707 | 44.7%316 W · 391 L | -22.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5633…59bcbacked Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 499.99$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 279 | 52%145 W · 134 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 493.6$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.18 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 488.08$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.76 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 476.48$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.65 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 458.4$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.7 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 399$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.56 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Los Angeles Angels | 65c | 387.5$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.25 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 359$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.96 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 350.87$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.38 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff19…3ebebacked Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 340.36$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.76 | 404 | 47.8%193 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe66f…0f3ebacked Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 272.29$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.81 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50cc…a534backed Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 267.86$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.86 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -6.3wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…befebacked Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 214.26$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.27 | 285 | 53%151 W · 134 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 209$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.96 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1950…1bf4backed Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 201.58$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.7 | 292 | 55.8%163 W · 129 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7f…d002backed Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 133.18$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.6 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x910a…1aa7backed Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 90.16$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.67 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd60…3927backed Los Angeles Angels | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Houston Astros | 42c | 86.21$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.21 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8599…ad67backed Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 73.91$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.52 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90e0…6307backed Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 72.91$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.08 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -44%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5016…ada1backed Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 65$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 356 | 50.6%180 W · 176 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…33dabacked Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60e5…ce36backed Houston Astros | 45c | 44.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6844…d538backed Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 43.45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.12 | 128 | 57%73 W · 55 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 43.11$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 341 | 49.3%168 W · 173 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cd…c041backed Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 34.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.13 | 250 | 53.2%133 W · 117 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…50bcbacked Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 27.84$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 305 | 54.4%166 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 27.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 253 | 55.7%141 W · 112 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf610…741cbacked Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 26.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 253 | 57.3%145 W · 108 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18ca…22c9backed Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 24.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.61 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a98…639dbacked Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 19.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 309 | 60.2%186 W · 123 L | +16.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)this page
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston AstrosLos Angeles Angels won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston AstrosNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.