TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Orioles vs. Astros

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Oriolesof Orioles, Astros
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$138,402
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$138,410

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $138,402 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 446 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe785…e106backed Orioles46c47,609$22,045 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,563.834854.2%26 W · 22 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+14.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3aff…e954backed Astros54c36,251$19,575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,575.48560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Astros55c7,131$3,901 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,901.212,47052.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d9d…02c7backed Astros53c5,638$2,988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,988.1435952.4%188 W · 171 L-5.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-1.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Astros53c4,793$2,564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,564.4943949.4%217 W · 222 L+13.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2fd…b3cebacked Orioles43c4,628$1,990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,637.841747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Astros57c4,600$2,602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,60295850%479 W · 479 L+4.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa75c…895ebacked Astros54c4,520$2,441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,440.816352.1%85 W · 78 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fb7…e33dbacked Orioles44c4,061$1,787 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,274.261,32851.4%682 W · 646 L+25.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3447…3495backed Astros57c3,930$2,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,240.12650%13 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Orioles46c2,888$1,329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,559.7423455.6%130 W · 104 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Astros1c2,667$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271,1807.2%85 W · 1,095 L-13.6wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-37.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Astros54c2,000$1,070 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0701,01048.1%486 W · 524 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Orioles44c2,000$880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,119.9871751%366 W · 351 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3745…cf3bbacked Orioles45c2,000$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,099.9838047.6%181 W · 199 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c12…1937backed Orioles56c1,670$934 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$736.538444%169 W · 215 L-11.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4c4…6ea5backed Astros53c1,500$795 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7952751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Astros49c1,446$709 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$709.59,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc623…9afdbacked Astros59c1,353$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80013553.3%72 W · 63 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x363d…fe75backed Astros30c1,071$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32021242.5%90 W · 122 L-13.7wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-7.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf5d4…a077backed Orioles43c1,000$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57050843.3%220 W · 288 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6148…acadbacked Orioles43c764$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$435.4824547.3%116 W · 129 L+21.2wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+22.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Astros50c692$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.31,38148.1%664 W · 717 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e94…6243backed Orioles57c659.04$378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.4954345.5%247 W · 296 L+14.1wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Orioles43c603.51$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3441,90953.5%1,021 W · 888 L+29.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x92ed…82c6backed Astros2c599.98$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410441.3%43 W · 61 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x248c…d914backed Astros55c574.67$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.0724253.7%130 W · 112 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Astros54c565$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.12,27443.2%983 W · 1,291 L+43.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Astros54c565$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.36,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd523…0aa4backed Astros57c526$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.821,29346.6%603 W · 690 L+14.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd28e…aae3backed Orioles43c513$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.4144443%191 W · 253 L+21.1wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+11.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3d64…01fabacked Orioles43c449.15$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.0251347%241 W · 272 L+32.0wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+14.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5cc6…f0f8backed Orioles45c440.98$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.9811051.8%57 W · 53 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8351…9bebbacked Orioles47c425.53$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.5365248.3%315 W · 337 L+1.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26e9…4a51backed Astros27c400$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10810940.4%44 W · 65 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67fd…2b74backed Astros55c399.99$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22016651.8%86 W · 80 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Orioles45c399.99$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.9983248%399 W · 433 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3045…8f78backed Astros54c370.37$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20034550.7%175 W · 170 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Orioles45c349.99$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.51,36044.3%602 W · 758 L+45.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Orioles44c345$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.21,43550%717 W · 718 L+25.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc17…289abacked Orioles46c304$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.1617946.4%83 W · 96 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed Astros54c286.84$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.91,28947.2%609 W · 680 L-18.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4dbe…af34backed Astros53c250$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.556451.1%288 W · 276 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xce6d…28b5backed Astros54c249.99$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.991,48350.2%745 W · 738 L+5.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Orioles46c245.89$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.971,40248.8%684 W · 718 L-11.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Orioles47c231$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.4326056.5%147 W · 113 L+13.1wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa717…8919backed Orioles45c223$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.6540548.9%198 W · 207 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x03fe…27e8backed Astros5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1070%0 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b5a…d1bbbacked Astros55c200$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1105250%26 W · 26 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec14…afbbbacked Orioles45c200$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1108051.3%41 W · 39 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2019…a6a9backed Orioles45c200$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1107653.9%41 W · 35 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7752…490bbacked Astros55c200$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1105349.1%26 W · 27 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3236…8f9ebacked Astros55c200$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1107757.1%44 W · 33 L+5.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+15%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2ea7…b555backed Astros55c200$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1105257.7%30 W · 22 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+15.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb033…88e6backed Astros55c200$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1105253.8%28 W · 24 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c61…a273backed Orioles45c200$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1107546.7%35 W · 40 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e48…c9cabacked Orioles45c200$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1105339.6%21 W · 32 L-5.1wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-19.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6caa…d782backed Astros55c200$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1105145.1%23 W · 28 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xea21…9033backed Astros55c200$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1105250%26 W · 26 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bfa…2fa8backed Astros55c200$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1105347.2%25 W · 28 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc81…40c9backed Orioles45c200$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1105147.1%24 W · 27 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c37…a9efbacked Orioles45c200$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1105255.8%29 W · 23 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8187…fbe2backed Astros55c200$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1105251.9%27 W · 25 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xab77…cd04backed Orioles45c200$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1105356.6%30 W · 23 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+16.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x46fe…78dabacked Orioles45c200$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1105366%35 W · 18 L+9.3wins+0.18per pick48cpaid+37%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xf6ff…42f7backed Orioles45c200$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1105154.9%28 W · 23 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+15.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9194…cc43backed Astros55c200$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1105362.3%33 W · 20 L+6.7wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+27%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x97cd…1d85backed Orioles45c200$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1105455.6%30 W · 24 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+15%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc1e5…0bccbacked Orioles45c200$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1105160.8%31 W · 20 L+5.7wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+24%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xce4f…0170backed Astros55c200$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1105451.9%28 W · 26 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf45…413abacked Astros55c200$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1105453.7%29 W · 25 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8ebb…670dbacked Astros55c200$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1105152.9%27 W · 24 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb65a…3aa3backed Astros55c200$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1105358.5%31 W · 22 L+4.5wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+18.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xda76…0838backed Astros55c200$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1105238.5%20 W · 32 L-7.4wins-0.14per pick53cpaid-26.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xc2e3…fbbebacked Astros55c200$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1105352.8%28 W · 25 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x223e…602bbacked Astros55c200$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1105261.5%32 W · 20 L+5.6wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+23.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc5e7…c54abacked Astros55c200$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1105147.1%24 W · 27 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-10.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa079…ed58backed Astros55c200$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1105162.7%32 W · 19 L+5.9wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+24.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb79f…8197backed Orioles45c200$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1105257.7%30 W · 22 L+4.0wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x56f5…0071backed Astros55c200$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1105455.6%30 W · 24 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+13.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb2f1…a93dbacked Astros55c200$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1105042%21 W · 29 L-4.9wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-18.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1fc3…1270backed Orioles45c200$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1105461.1%33 W · 21 L+6.2wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+24.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xea60…f4f6backed Orioles45c200$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1105367.9%36 W · 17 L+9.3wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+37.1%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xf397…3adfbacked Astros55c200$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1105356.6%30 W · 23 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdfea…35d3backed Astros55c200$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1105158.8%30 W · 21 L+4.7wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+20.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x436b…c7ccbacked Astros55c200$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1105347.2%25 W · 28 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fd3…eecfbacked Astros55c200$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1105261.5%32 W · 20 L+4.5wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+18.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2ea5…a429backed Astros55c200$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1104959.2%29 W · 20 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+12.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7bb8…6feebacked Astros55c200$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1105151%26 W · 25 L0.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e12…c5d1backed Astros55c200$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1105250%26 W · 26 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd22b…6880backed Astros55c200$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1105352.8%28 W · 25 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a8d…70efbacked Orioles45c200$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1105052%26 W · 24 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xddca…5ab9backed Astros55c200$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1105145.1%23 W · 28 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5013…5aaebacked Astros55c200$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1105244.2%23 W · 29 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-12.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xca45…d552backed Orioles45c200$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1105448.1%26 W · 28 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf215…abcfbacked Astros55c200$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1105246.2%24 W · 28 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-11.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c28…6944backed Astros55c200$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1105253.8%28 W · 24 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12bd…982bbacked Orioles45c200$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1105147.1%24 W · 27 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0ca…499cbacked Orioles45c200$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1105448.1%26 W · 28 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6020…9e3cbacked Orioles45c200$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1105250%26 W · 26 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.