AI · resolved market
Atlas global browser market share 1%+ on December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a4ba4f97ed988cab824ef32eb8c688fb0c44e554c5020ab6ea8c49081481f87
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,792
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,612
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,792 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5188…c804backed No | 74c | 4,073$3,029 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,044.04 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1c…61d7backed Yes | 14c | 3,791$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -37%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 6c | 1,951$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.15 | 267 | 4.9%13 W · 254 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 1c | 1,194$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | +8.4wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 46c | 1,033$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.9 | 257 | 31.5%81 W · 176 L | -14.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 5c | 683.39$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.13 | 190 | 11.6%22 W · 168 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71ed…d338backed Yes | 4c | 607.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d1…8749backed No | 80c | 600$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.58 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 7c | 518.13$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.33 | 150 | 2.7%4 W · 146 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3000…0d25backed No | 43c | 461.95$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.95 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafb8…d9c1backed Yes | 53c | 344.92$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd072…f8b6backed Yes | 7c | 230.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1773…f4e3backed Yes | 8c | 199.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc77…c035backed Yes | 27c | 125$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.41 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…d366backed No | 47c | 95.7$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.74 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5358…5243backed No | 71c | 90.49$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.93 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b46…544fbacked Yes | 56c | 86.5$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d35…0486backed Yes | 63c | 85.41$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 21c | 84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…d95cbacked Yes | 38c | 61.84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked No | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.92 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91ed…0219backed No | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb4a…e265backed No | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +98.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1311…f01dbacked Yes | 59c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb38…5f1dbacked No | 50c | 23.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc906…6d2fbacked No | 78c | 15.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Atlas global browser market share 1%+ on December 31?this page
- Atlas global browser market share 3%+ on December 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.