Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a4c8513a76735dad4bed67ed3f31f84ffc0711c09f937888f40236644dc737a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,604
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,486
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,604 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf381…40c2backed Yes | 59c | 1,109$652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.56 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbe…a4dfbacked Yes | 70c | 393.26$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.55 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 40c | 383$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.56 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 57c | 361.41$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.54 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 36c | 301.1$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.56 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 42c | 239.57$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.27 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 48c | 227.2$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.3 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 29c | 223.91$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.5 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 42c | 199.51$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.13 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 41c | 193.91$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.17 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 41c | 176.5$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.25 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 28c | 174.84$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.4 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0941…b254backed Yes | 33c | 162.38$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.53 | 119 | 35.3%42 W · 77 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 55c | 153.27$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.08 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 37c | 142.03$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.69 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 61c | 139$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.65 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…31b5backed No | 39c | 129.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 95 | 36.8%35 W · 60 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 54c | 124$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.86 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedba…002dbacked No | 72c | 110.38$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.92 | 96 | 79.2%76 W · 20 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 53c | 109.5$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.53 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 38c | 105.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.77 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 37c | 102.43$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.04 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed Yes | 31c | 95.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.63 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 40c | 92.54$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.17 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 59c | 84.82$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.9 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 69c | 80.98$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.88 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507c…c876backed Yes | 42c | 80.46$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.31 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 39c | 78.24$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 59c | 68$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.44 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 65c | 68$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.88 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 62c | 65.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.44 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 36c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 53c | 58.01$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.96 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2f…1d7bbacked Yes | 65c | 54$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff06…c7d5backed No | 71c | 52.57$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.35 | 112 | 58.9%66 W · 46 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 59c | 50.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 41c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33b7…0589backed No | 72c | 48.6$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 86 | 73.3%63 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 68c | 44.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.39 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 60c | 41.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.32 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 35c | 40.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…a2bebacked No | 63c | 39.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 38.59$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.81 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76c7…860ebacked Yes | 28c | 37.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.49 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x506c…840cbacked Yes | 52c | 37.62$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.22 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93f0…b231backed No | 45c | 33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 45c | 32.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 64c | 32.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb051…9bfbbacked Yes | 73c | 32.46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 39c | 32.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd13c…5992backed No | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed No | 34c | 30.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 49c | 29.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 71c | 29.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd5f…6c06backed Yes | 39c | 29.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d46…f816backed No | 63c | 26.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 46c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 59c | 25.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 63c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 57c | 21.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 74c | 21.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 76c | 20.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9775…b70dbacked Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbb…9b60backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 159 | 15.7%25 W · 134 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76f1…06fbbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 57 | 63.2%36 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 73c | 18.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 60c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 63c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 68c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…a773backed No | 72c | 15.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 68c | 15.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked Yes | 80c | 14.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 76°F or higher on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.